By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada
Winnipeg, Nov. 20 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market was stronger on Thursday – tracking the US soy complex in low-volume trading.
There is little farmer selling right now and large funds don’t have a definite position, they’re absolutely even, according to a trader.
“Most analysts and merchants think canola will eventually out maneuver the soybeans on the upside, but that won’t happen until 2015,” he said, adding values would likely stay between C$420.00 to $440.00 per tonne in the near-term.
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ICE canola stronger at midday Thursday
Glacier FarmMedia — The ICE Futures canola market was stronger at midday Thursday, correcting higher after touching its lowest levels…
European rapeseed futures and Malaysian palm oil were both
higher which helped to underpin the market.
However, a stronger Canadian dollar put downward pressure on
values.
The technical bias is shifting to the downside, meaning any significant bounce could be seen as a selling opportunity.
Around 10,877 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when around 16,302 contracts changed hands.
Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were up 15 to 18 cents per bushel on Thursday, with solid export demand behind much of the strength.
While the weekly export sales report was somewhat disappointing, with soybean sales of 483,000 down considerably from the previous week, the USDA also reported a separate sale of 100,000 tonnes to ‘unknown destinations’ Thursday morning.
Wednesday’s move to two-week lows was also seen as overdone from a chart standpoint, which brought back some speculative buying. Farmers were also back on the sidelines after being active sellers earlier in the week.
SOYOIL futures finished higher on Thursday, following soybeans.
SOYMEAL futures were up on Thursday, with good demand and tight nearby supplies providing support.
CORN futures in Chicago were up five to 10 cents per bushel on Thursday, as the market saw a correction after four straight days of losses.
Solid weekly export sales of just under a million tonnes contributed to the strength in corn, as the exports came in above trade guesses. A separate sale of 100,000 tonnes announced by the USDA was also supportive.
Harvest delays for the remaining US corn crop underpinned values as well.
WHEAT futures in Chicago were up nine to 12 cents per bushel on Thursday, following corn. Weekly wheat export sales were also at the high end of trade guesses.
News that Saudi Arabia was looking to purchase 330,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender closing Friday was also somewhat supportive.
However, the US continues to miss out on export business, with an Egyptian purchase of 60,000 tonnes of French wheat the latest snub of the more expensive US wheat.
– Colder-than-normal temperatures for this time of year across much of the US Plains provided some support, as the freezing weather may damage the US winter wheat crop.
– Farmers in Brazil’s Parana state harvested 96% of its latest wheat crop, while producers in Uruguay have harvested 10% of their wheat, according to reports from the two South American countries.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
