North American grain/oilseed review: Canola declines further ahead of the weekend

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Published: November 4, 2016

By Jade Markus and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, November 4 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola ended lower on Friday, pressured by forecasts for improved weather in parts of Western Canada over the weekend.

Areas in Manitoba and Saskatchewan will be seeing warmer temperatures with limited precipitation, current Environment Canada forecasts show, which pressured the market.

Losses in the Malaysian palm oil and Chicago Board of Trade soy oil markets also had a bearish effect on prices.

Market watchers say canola’s technical bias is to the downside, which added to the declines.

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About 21,244 canola contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 15,476 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for about 6,542 of the contracts traded.

Barley futures were unchanged, while milling wheat and durum were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade held near unchanged on Friday, settling with only small gains of one to two cents per bushel as traders squared positions ahead of next week’s US Presidential election and monthly USDA supply/demand report.

Solid export demand continued to provide underlying support, following Thursday’s very large weekly sales.

However, expectations for a record large US soybean crop and good weather forecasts for the final stages of this year’s harvest kept prices under pressure.

SOYOIL futures were down on Friday, with losses in crude oil behind some of the weakness.

SOYMEAL futures posted small gains on Friday, with adjustments to the soyoil/soymeal spread favouring the meal side of the equation.

CORN futures in Chicago were steady to up one cent per bushel on Friday, in subdued trade as participants were unwilling to push values too far one way or the other ahead of the weekend.

Positioning ahead of the US election on Tuesday and USDA report on Wednesday was behind much of the activity in corn.

Average trade guesses place US corn production at about 15 billion bushels, with yields in the 169 to 175 bushels per acre range.

WHEAT futures in Chicago were up by one to two cents per bushel on Friday.

While poor export demand remained a bearish influence in the wheat market, recent weakness in the US dollar index may encourage some more offshore buying interest.

Production issues with Australia’s crop were also somewhat supportive.

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