North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola holds onto small gains

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Published: August 4, 2016

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Erin DeBooy, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Aug. 4 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts held onto small gains on Thursday, as spillover from the advances in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil provided some support.

Ideas that canola was looking oversold from a chart perspective helped underpin the futures as well, although some fund traders were still thought to be on the sell side.

Large production prospects also served to temper the gains, as end users have little reason to pay up for supplies ahead of the harvest.

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Strength in the Canadian dollar was another bearish influence on canola, with the currency up by over a third of a cent relative to its US counterpart.

While the industry anticipates a large crop, there were still enough areas of concern across the Prairies to keep values well supported.

About 12,292 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 18,004 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 4,360 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although wheat prices were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade traded both sides of unchanged on Thursday for the September contract, and rising just over 1 US cent for the November contract.

Net sales for the week ended July 28 totalled nearly 1.7 million tonnes for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 crop years, according to the USDA, supporting prices.

However, forecasts for warm weather and the USDA’s latest forecast calling for the third-largest soybean crop in history limited gains.

SOYOIL prices closed higher on Thursday.

SOYMEAL closed weaker on Thursday.

CORN futures dropped around 4 US cents on Thursday, with the September contract barely pulling above daily lows to sit at US$3.2075 per bushel.

Favourable weather forecasts for the Farm Belt weighed on prices, with warmer temperatures expected and some moisture.

Crop tours continue to support forecasts for massive corn crops, also weighing on prices.

WHEAT closed lower on Wednesday, dropping between 5 to 7 US cents per bushel.

Prices for the September contract hit daily highs of US$4.16 before dropping to US$4.0325 per bushel.

Weekly export sales were disappointing, with the USDA reporting net wheat sales for the week ending July 28 totalling 370,000 tonnes for the 2015/16 and 2016/17 crop years, weighing on prices.

A global oversupply of grain offset shortfalls in the European Union, also weighing on prices.

-Monsanto’s unapproved genetically modified wheat has been found growing in a field in Washington state, according to the USDA. The discovery raises concerns over GMO contamination, and is under investigation by federal and state officials.

– The winter cereals harvest is underway in Manitoba, while the majority of spring seeded crops are either in the grain filling or podding stage, according to the latest weekly report from Manitoba Agriculture. Preliminary reports place winter wheat yields at 60 to 95 bushels per acre, while fall rye yields range from 40 to 90 bushels per acre.

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