North American Grain/Oilseed Review – Canola Lags Lower Trailing US Soy

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Published: September 28, 2015

By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

THE ICE Futures Canada canola market ended lower, following losses in the US soy complex.

Favourable weather conditions through much of Western Canada helped speed the harvest along. Yields have been better than expected.

There are concerns canola is pricing itself out of the market, according to a report.

However, the Canadian dollar was lower relative to its US counterpart which made canola more attractive on the international market.

Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed futures were higher which helped give some strength to canola.

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“Demand is good and exports are running well. Crushers are running a little behind last year,” said an analyst.

The technical bias is pointing to the upside, according to a report.

A total of 21,572 canola contracts were traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when around 35,665 contracts changed hands.

Milling wheat, barley and durum were all untraded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were eight to twelve cents per bushel lower on Monday, as broad-based selling in the global financial markets spilled into the agricultural commodities as well.

Relatively favourable crop conditions across the Midwest contributed to the softer tone in beans, as yield reports continue to beat expectations as the harvest moves forward.

On the other side, recent demand from China remained supportive.

Positioning ahead of the USDA’s quarterly stocks report, on Wednesday, was another feature.

SOYOIL settled lower on Monday, as sharp declines in crude oil weighed on the vegetable oil markets as well.

SOYMEAL futures were down on Monday, following soybeans.

CORN futures in Chicago were down by one to three cents per bushel on Monday, as the good US harvest weather weighed on prices.

Ideas that the US was missing out on some export business, as more Brazilian corn finds its way to international markets, contributed to the softer tone.

WHEAT futures in Chicago were down by two to three cents per bushel on Monday.

US wheat still remains overpriced in the global market keeping the bias to the downside as the US continues to miss out on export opportunities.

Expectations that Canada’s wheat crop was likely larger than earlier estimates also weighed on US prices, as traders are awaiting Statistics Canada’s latest survey results on Friday.

However, dryness concerns in some wheat growing regions of the world did help limit the losses.

– Russia is on pace to export 4.7 million tonnes of grain September, which would be a record for the month, according to an official with the Russian Grain Union. Total exports during the season may also hit a record of 35 million tonnes.
– Wheat production in Zambia may be down by as much as 11% this year, despite increased acres, as power shortages hurt irrigation efforts during the growing season.

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