North American Grain/Oilseed Review – Canola Lifts With US Soy

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Published: December 1, 2015

By Dave Sims and Jade Markus, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, December 1 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market posted solid gains Tuesday, lifted in part by a stronger US soy complex.

The Canadian dollar was weaker relative to its US counterpart, which made canola more attractive to out-of-country buyers.

The Argentine government did not reduce its export tax on soybeans as heavily as many had predicted. The tax was lowered by just 5%, which was much less than expected and supportive for canola.

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Australia’s canola production is expected to be lower this year, which also helped to underpin the market.

Canola’s January contract broke through the technically-important C$470 per tonne level.

Spreading was a feature of the day. Canola is not as expensive right now compared to other oilseeds which could encourage buying down the line.

However, weak crush margins and losses in Malaysian palm oil weighed on the market.

South America looks to have another massive crop this year which was bearish.

Friday’s Statistics Canada report is expected to show a much larger canola crop than previously reported.

Milling wheat, barley and durum were untraded.

Around 30,348 canola contracts were traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when around 26,157 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 21,104 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, barley and durum were untraded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed seven to eight cents per bushel higher on Tuesday, gathering support from an announcement made by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

On Monday the EPA released targets for how much biofuel must be mixed into the US fuel supply.

The news provided support to soybeans, as they are used in the production of some biofuels.

A weaker US dollar added to the bullish tone.

SOYOIL prices settled stronger on Tuesday, gathering support from nearby markets.

SOYMEAL closed higher on Tuesday, tracking soybean futures.

CORN futures closed half a cent to two cents per bushel stronger on Tuesday as the announcement from the EPA also provided support to the commodity.

Weakness in the US dollar was also bullish.

However, analysts say uncertainty about the progress of Ukraine’s corn seeding limited gains.

WHEAT closed three and a half to almost eight cents per bushel weaker on Tuesday as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released data on the condition of the country’s winter wheat crops.

Plant conditions in the top 18 winter wheat-producing states were about at 55 per cent good or excellent as of Sunday, an increase from last week’s estimated 53 per cent, according to the USDA.

– Russia is expected to produce 103.7 million metric tonnes of grain, and 30 million of that should be available for export, according to reports out of the country.
– Australia cut their wheat production for the 2015/16 crop year from 25.28 million metric tonnes to 23.98 million metric tonnes.

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