North American Grain/Oilseed Review – Canola shrugs off resistance

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Published: October 27, 2015

THE ICE Futures Canada canola market finished slightly higher on choppy trading Tuesday, overcoming some technical resistance with the help of the Canadian dollar.

The loonie was roughly half a cent lower compared to its US counterpart which made canola more attractive to international buyers while crushers were also showing good demand.

The US soy complex and Malaysian palm oil were both higher which underpinned the market while spread activity was also a feature.

However, canola did feel technical pressure and came close to breaking below the 50-day moving average, according to a trader.

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“A move underneath the 50-day moving average could bring the funds back in on the sell side,” he said, adding canola was still locked into some resistance.

Milling wheat, barley and durum were all untraded.

A total of 32,676 canola contracts were traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 41,085 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 27,998 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were up five to six cents per bushel on Tuesday, seeing a modest short-covering correction after Monday’s sharp losses.

Solid export demand contributed to the turn higher in soybeans, as the USDA reported weekly soybean export inspections of 2.7 million tonnes.

Adjustments to the soybean/corn spreads were another feature, with traders liquidating long corn positions and buying back soybean shorts.

SOYOIL settled with small gains on Tuesday, after trading to both sides of unchanged in choppy activity.

SOYMEAL futures were up on Tuesday, boosted in part by supportive technical signals.

CORN futures in Chicago were down by two to four cents per bushel on Tuesday, as poor export demand and the advancing US harvest weighed on values.

The US corn harvest was 75 per cent complete as of this past Sunday, which was in line with trade guesses but ahead of average for this time of year.

News that a cargo of Brazilian corn is making its way to the US contributed to the softer tone, especially as that business is taking place at a time when the US is awash in recently harvested supplies.

WHEAT futures in Chicago settled within a penny of unchanged in the most active months, seeing some consolidation following Monday’s rally.

The wheat market initially saw some follow-through buying interest after jumping sharply higher on Monday, with improving chart signals and the persistent weather issues in a number of wheat growing regions of the world providing support.

However, demand for higher priced US wheat in the international market remains lacklustre at best, limiting the upside.

– The US winter wheat crop was rated 47 per cent good-to-excellent in the first USDA ratings of the season, released Monday afternoon. That was down from 59 per cent at the same point a year ago. The US winter wheat crop is 83 per cent seeded, which is only slightly off the five-year average of 55 per cent.

– Forecasts are calling for cold temperatures and continued dryness in parts of Ukraine and Russia, which may cause further emergence and seeding issues for winter grains in the countries.

– Iran is moving along in its efforts to become self sufficient in wheat production, and grew a large enough crop that it has 400,000 tonnes of durum it plans to sell on the export market, according to an official with the country’s State Trading Corporation.

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