North American Grain/Oilseed Review – Canola, Soybeans Leap Higher

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Published: October 27, 2014

By Dave Sims and Terryn Shiells, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Oct 27 – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts settled higher on Monday, as values followed US soymeal higher, throughout the day.

Soymeal underpinned the entire oilseed complex, said one trader, due to strong demand and tight supplies in the US.

Canola values were also rebounding from Friday’s sell-off, which was sparked when the Louis Dreyfus canola crushing plant in Yorkton, Saskatchewan suffered an explosion. It is not known how long the plant will be closed.

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On the flipside, rain in drought-stricken regions of Brazil pressured values, along with the advancing US soybean harvest. Soyoil was also leaning to the downside.

About 21,555 canola contracts were traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 33,168 contracts changed hands.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were sharply higher on Monday, with the November and January contracts breaking above the US$10.00 per bushel level. Prices ended 20 to 30 cents US per bushel higher.

Much of the strength was linked to a rally in soymeal values, due to tight supplies and strong demand.

Positive weekly export inspections data was also bullish. According to the USDA, 2.195 million tonnes of soybeans were inspected for export during the week, which was above expectations.

Chart-based buying, after the market broke above both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, further underpinned the market, analysts said.

However, good weather for harvesting in the US this week and expectations that the USDA will up their production estimate in their next monthly crop report limited the advances.

SOYOIL futures finished lower, undermined by spreading against soymeal. Weakness in Malaysian palm oil was also bearish for soyoil, traders said.

SOYMEAL futures saw very large gains on Monday, finishing more than seven per cent higher in the December contract. Prices were finding support from concerns about tight supplies amid very strong demand for the commodity, brokers said.

CORN futures in Chicago settled five to 10 cents US per bushel higher on Monday, following the advances seen in soybean futures.

Positive domestic ethanol margins were contributing to the upward price action as well, participants said.

However, very good yields reported in the US and good weather for the US harvest this week were bearish.

Weekly export inspections data came in at 702,908 tonnes, which was at the low end of expectations.

WHEAT futures were mostly higher, with Minneapolis, Kansas and Chicago contracts ending one cent lower to six cents higher.

Positive domestic ethanol margins were contributing to the upward price action as well, participants said.

However, very good yields reported in the US and good weather for the US harvest this week were bearish.

Weekly export inspections data came in at 702,908 tonnes, which was at the low end of expectations.

• The grain crop in Kazakhstan is estimated at 15.5 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from a previous guess, the country’s agriculture ministry said.

• Argentina’s government is expected to release another 400,000 tonnes of wheat from the 2013/14 season into the export market, according to reports.

• Egypt has purchased 1.7 million tonnes of wheat on the international market since the beginning of the fiscal year on July 1, a state grain buyer from the country said.

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