North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola Up, But Beans Down

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Published: October 12, 2016

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Jade Markus, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Oct. 12 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were stronger on Wednesday, despite losses in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans, as adverse weather across Western Canada provided support.

About 20 per cent of the canola crop is still reportedly unharvested, with snow, rain, and cold temperatures causing further delays. That production uncertainty kept canola well supported, according to participants.

The USDA released its much-anticipated monthly supply/demand estimates earlier in the morning. While the slightly smaller-than-expected soybean production estimate of 4.269 billion bushels initially gave soybeans a boost, any gains there were short lived and the generally weaker tone in the US futures tempered the upside in canola.

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A lack of significant export demand also weighed on values, while chart resistance held to the upside.

About 32,690 canola contracts were traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 34,062 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 24,408 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded, although prices were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed eight to nine cents per bushel lower Wednesday, pressured by a larger production estimate from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Record-large production had already been expected by the market, but fresh estimates from the USDA showed an increase in anticipated 2016/17 production, which is now pegged at 4.269 billion bushels.

Seeding progress in Brazil added to the declines.

SOYOIL prices were unchanged to lower on Wednesday.

SOYMEAL closed weaker on Wednesday.

CORN futures were six to eight cents per bushel weaker on Wednesday, despite a lower production and stocks estimate from the USDA.

Corn production was seen at 15.057 billion bushels, which is still large, and weighed on values.

South American producers are making progress on corn seeding, which was also bearish.

Losses in crude oil, and spillover weakness from the corn and soybean markets added to the declines.

WHEAT closed seven to 10 cents per bushel weaker on Wednesday, as the USDA upwardly revised its ending stocks for the commodity.

Ending stocks of the grain are now expected to reach 1.138 billion bushels, the USDA said.

Winter wheat seeding progress was also bearish.

– US winter wheat seeding is expected to be 59 per cent finished.

– A Taiwanese miller is tendering for 80,630 metric tonnes of US wheat, market watchers say.

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