North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola up, but well off session highs

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Published: October 5, 2015

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Jade Markus, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Oct. 5 – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts settled with small advances on Monday, but finished well off their session highs as profit-taking and farmer hedges came forward to weigh on prices.

Gains in CBOT soyoil and soybeans provided some early support for canola, according to participants.

News that a deal was reached on the Trans Pacific Partnership contributed to the early buying interest, as ratification of the trade deal would open the door for more canola exports.

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However, heavy farmer deliveries into the commercial pipeline gave rise to an increase in hedge selling, which limited the upside potential.

The stronger Canadian dollar and bearish chart signals also kept canola well off its highs, with the November contract facing stiff resistance at the C$480 per tonne level.

About 26,253 canola contracts were traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 24,247 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 17,924 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed eight to ten cents per bushel higher on Monday, as indications that demand from China has not wavered hit the market.

Export inspections reported from the USDA on Monday were better than analyst expectations, which supported soybean prices, as did a recovery in global stock markets.

However, market watchers say expectations that the US will see a bumper crop capped gains.

SOYOIL prices settled higher on Monday, tracking Malaysian palm oil.

SOYMEAL closed stronger on Monday following neighbouring markets.

CORN futures closed four cents per bushel stronger Monday, supported in-part by rising soybean prices.

Analysts expect reduced estimates from the USDA for harvested corn acreage this year, which is bullish.

But uncertainty about the size and health of this year’s US corn crop will likely have a bearish effect on prices moving forward.

WHEAT futures in Chicago closed two to four cents per bushel stronger Monday as a lower US dollar buoyed prices.

Additionally, unfavourable weather in growing regions in Australia, Russia, and Ukraine kept prices supported.

However, market watchers say wheat looks bearish long-term as exports have fallen to a low amid high global supplies.

– Iraq is expected to order 50,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat from either the US, Canada, Australia, or Russia, market watchers say.

– Taiwan has tendered for 89,150 tonnes of US milling wheat.
END

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