North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola up with follow-through buying

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Published: September 1, 2016

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Jade Markus, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Sept. 1 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were stronger on Thursday, as the market remained supported by expectations for increased Chinese demand following news that the country would delay imposing stricter dockage allowances for the time being.

China had been set to lower the amount of dockage it would allow in Canadian canola shipments from 2.5 per cent down to one per cent starting September 1, but a deal was reached to extend that deadline as further negotiations take place.

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Chart based buying was another supportive influence, with the nearby technical bias shifting back to the upside, according to analysts.

Weather related harvest delays in parts of Western Canada contributed to the gains, although traders are still generally expecting a very large crop when it is eventually harvested.

Losses in the Chicago soyoil futures and a firmer tone in the Canadian dollar also weighed on prices.

About 15,067 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 33,568 contracts changed hands.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed one to three cents per bushel stronger on Thursday after moving to a key support level, which is technically bullish.

Strong new-crop sales reported by the United States Department of Agriculture furthered advances.

However, the market is still faced with a number of bearish factors, which limited upside potential.

Harvest-pressure and the expectation for a large upcoming crop limited gains.

SOYOIL prices closed weaker on Thursday, tracking losses in Malaysian palm oil.

SOYMEAL closed mixed on Thursday.

CORN futures were seven to nine cents per bushel stronger on Thursday, propped up by ideas that this year’s crop may not be as large as previously thought.

Disease-pressure may be cutting into yields, which is bullish.

The market advanced in corrective trade after moving to contract lows on Wednesday, which was another supportive feature.

Speculative traders are moving into short positions, which added to the advances.

However, export data released by the USDA capped gains.

New-crop soybean sales were below analyst expectations, which is bearish.

WHEAT advanced six to seven cents per bushel on Thursday, as prices were underpinned by the expectation that the market has become oversold, though a bearish supply and demand situation capped gains.

Weekly export sales reported by the USDA also limited advances.

Sales of 279,400 metric tonnes were down 26 per cent from the previous week and 38 per cent from the previous four-week average, the USDA said.

– Egypt has cancelled its most-recent wheat tender, market watchers say.

– Japan will now continue buying US wheat after halting trade in July, analysts say.

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