North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola up with lack of hedges

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Published: September 21, 2015

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service

Winnipeg, Sept. 21 – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were stronger on Monday, finding some support from the advances in CBOT soyoil and a softer tone in the Canadian dollar.
Good weather conditions across most of the Prairies should prove bearish in the long run, as the harvest progresses and the commercial pipeline fills up.
However, with most farmers still busy on their fields, the lack of nearby hedge pressure was somewhat supportive as well, according to traders.

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From a chart standpoint the overall downtrend remains intact, with a downside target in the November contract seen around the 200 day moving average at C$462 per tonne.
About 9,049 canola contracts were traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 18,963 contracts changed hands.
Milling wheat, durum, and barley were all untraded.

SOYBEAN prices corrected seven cents per bushel higher Monday, after recording their lowest price for the front-month contract in over six years.
This morning (Monday) the USDA reported sales of 240,000 tonnes of soybeans to an unknown buyer.
However, worries still persist over Asian demand for supplies along with reports of good yields in some US states, which was bearish for values.

Soyoil was 45 points higher tracking gains in other vegetable oils and a four percent spike in crude oil.

SOYMEAL futures ended slightly higher on signs of livestock demand.

Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade posted gains on short-covering Monday, after falling for four consecutive sessions. Contracts ended roughly 7 cents per bushel higher.
Weather reports say some rain fell on the Midwest over the weekend, but not as much as farmers had hoped for.
However, the corn harvest is advancing at a steady pace and new supplies are beginning to enter the market which limited the gains.

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended 10 cents per bushel higher on short-covering and word that Russian grain exports are off to a slow start.
According to a report, Russian exported 22.6% less grain between July 1 and September 18 than the same time last year. A new grain export duty is being blamed for the slowdown.

There are ideas feed-wheat could be in for some market pressure as farmers turn to cheaper supplies of corn.

– Ukraine is forecast to harvest 22 percent less buckwheat this year, according to a report.
– Kazahkstan has reportedly completed 95 percent of its harvest in the main cultivated areas, and is already working to increase shipments to China.

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