North American grain/oilseeds review: canola down with CBOT soy complex

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Published: March 13, 2015

By Terryn Shiells and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

WINNIPEG, March 13 – The ICE Futures Canada canola market was lower on Friday, following the declines seen in the Chicago soy complex, analysts said.

The large global oilseed supply situation, as South
America’s soybean crop is expected to be record large, was also bearish.

Further downward pressure came from a lack of aggressive exporter pricing, as they wait for the market to soften a bit more, brokers noted.

On the other side, the sharply lower Canadian dollar was bullish, as it made canola more attractively priced to crushers and foreign buyers.

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The need to keep a weather premium built into new crop values was also supportive, as was slow farmer selling in Western Canada.

About 13,105 contracts changed hands on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 25,510 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 7,478 of the trades.

Milling wheat, durum and barley futures were all untraded. Though, the Exchange moved wheat prices lower after Friday’s close.

CORN futures in Chicago ended seven to eight cents per bushel lower Friday on rumours ranchers in the southeast part of the US had imported corn from South America for use as cattle feed. Cheap ocean freight rates also lent to speculation more corn could be imported from Europe as well, according to a report.

Traders also booked profits ahead of the weekend, an analyst said.

Futures were confined to the trading range that has been in place for three weeks, market watchers added.

SOYBEAN futures in Chicago settled 14 to 16 cents per bushel lower Friday, as export demand remains slow in the face of the steadily rising US dollar. Rising global soy inventories also cast a bearish tone over the market, participants said.

An increase in farmer selling in Brazil also pressured values, according to a report.

Though, strong soymeal basis levels in the Midwest were slightly supportive, said an analyst.

SOYOIL futures in Chicago closed 35 to 38 points lower on the day.

SOYMEAL futures ended lower, following soybeans.

WHEAT futures in Chicago posted losses of five to six cents per bushel on Friday as traders liquidated their positions before the weekend.

The strong US dollar continues to make wheat expensive on the world stage, which slowed export demand and further undermined values.

Though, worries about unfavourable weather damaging US winter wheat crops limited the downside. Above-normal temperatures are threatening to bring the crop out of its dormancy quicker than usual due to dry conditions. With the possible exception of central and east Texas, moisture is expected to be relatively scarce over the Great Plains next week.

• Grain prices in the United Kingdom continue to go down, according to a report. As of March 7, the average price of feed wheat was 115 British Pound Sterling (GBP) per tonne.

• A Paris-based consulting firm has slashed its projection for soft wheat shipments by the European Union in 2014/15. Strategie Grains now says the EU will export 30 million tonnes during the period, down 2.5 million tonnes since the last forecast.

• As of March 12, farmers in Ukraine had planted 5% of the early spring cereal crop.

ICE Futures Canada settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

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