North American Grains/Oilseed Review: Canola dips on technicals

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Published: September 15, 2016

By Dave Sims and Jade Markus, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, September 15 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market ended slightly lower on Thursday, weighed down by action in the Canadian currency and chart-based trading.

The dollar was about a third of a cent higher relative to its US counterpart which made canola less attractive overseas.

Light volumes may have exaggerated the losses, according to a trader in Winnipeg.

“Nobody is really wanting to chase the market. The funds are sitting on their hands waiting for some moving averages to come up,” he said.

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Uncertainty over the future of Canadian canola exports to China was also a factor weighing on traders’ minds, he said.

However, on the bright side, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will be in Ottawa and Montreal on September 21 to the 24, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

“So there’s maybe come optimism that something can be nailed down there (in regards to rules on how much dockage is allowed in Canadian canola shipments),” he said.

Advances in the US soy complex helped prop up prices.

As well, much of Western Canada has seen a lot of rain recently, which has hampered harvesting efforts in some regions, which was supportive.

Around 11,025 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when around 14,729 contracts changed hands.

Milling wheat and durum were untraded while 50 barley contracts changed hands.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed about six to eight cents per bushel higher on Thursday, propped up by export data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Net sales for 2016/17 totalled 1,018,600 metric tonnes in the week ending September 8, the USDA said.

Dry weather in Brazil further underpinned the market.

A lack of moisture in the region could hurt yield potential on the soon to be seeded crop, which is bullish.

SOYOIL prices were higher on Thursday.

SOYMEAL closed stronger on Thursday.

CORN futures were about two to three cents per bushel lower on Thursday, pressured by weak export data from the USDA.

Net sales for 2016/17 in the week ending September 8 totalled 703,500 metric tonne.

Advances in the crude oil market limited losses.

WHEAT closed mostly unchanged to three cents per bushel weaker on Thursday, pressured by export sales.

Sales in the week ending September 8 were down 39 per cent from the previous week and 11 per cent from the prior four-week average, the USDA said.
– Japan has bought 149,231 metric tonnes of US, Canadian and Australian-origin wheat, market watchers say.
– Strategie Grains, a European cereal analysis group, expects the EU will produce 136.5 million tonnes of wheat, which is 1.4 million tonnes lower than previous estimates.

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