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North American Grains/Oilseed Review: Canola firms with soy

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Published: September 29, 2016

By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, September 29 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market finished slightly higher in range-bound trade Thursday, taking strength from currency issues and gains in vegetable oil.

Advances in US soybeans, soyoil, Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed futures underpinned the market.

The Canadian dollar was roughly half a cent lower compared to its US counterpart, which was supportive for canola exports.

Demand remains solid as crushing activity continues to stay in high gear.

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However, concerns about Chinese exports were bearish for canola.

Soybean yields in the US are expected to rise which was bearish.

Around 11,865 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when around 18,930 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for about 7,704 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, barley and durum were untraded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were up by three to five cents per bushel on Thursday, as solid export demand provided support.

Weekly US soybean export sales came in at nearly 1.7 million tonnes, which was above trade estimates and the largest of the marketing-year-to-date.

However, the advancing US harvest and good early yield reports tempered the upside, according to participants.

SOYOIL futures were up on Thursday, as gains in crude oil provided spillover support for vegetable oil.

SOYMEAL futures were down slightly on Thursday, as spreading against soyoil weighed on values. Soft weekly export sales also kept prices under pressure.

CORN futures in Chicago settled unchanged in the most active months on Thursday, as traders squared positions and kept to the sidelines ahead of Friday’s USDA stocks report.

Weekly US corn export sales of only 575,000 tonnes were well below trade estimates, which weighed on corn prices. The advancing harvest was another bearish influence.

However, early yields reports are highly variable, and traders remain uncertain over the size of this year’s US crop.

The stocks report on Friday will provide a clearer picture of feed usage over the past quarter and carryover supplies into the new crop year.

WHEAT futures in Chicago were down by three to four cents per bushel on Thursday, as ample world supplies and bearish technical signals weighed on values.

However, mounting quality concerns with the Canadian wheat crop kept a premium in the Minneapolis futures as traders build a protein premium into the wheat markets.

Weekly US wheat export sales came in at 570,800 tonnes, according to the USDA, which was right in line with trade expectations.

– Japan bought 126,000 tonnes of wheat from Canada and the US in its latest tender, according to reports.

– Jordan is re-tendering to purchase 100,000 tonnes of wheat.

– Forecasts calling for wetter than normal conditions along eastern Australia over the next few months may cut into the size and quality of the country’s wheat crop, according to reports.

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