StatCan sees record Canadian wheat and canola crops
Canadian wheat and canola production hit new record highs in the 2025 to 26 crop year. That’s according to updated, survey-based estimates from Statistics Canada.
Total wheat production was forecasted at just shy of 40 million tonnes, up from about 36.6 million tonnes in the September estimate. Spring wheat was up more than 10 per cent on the last crop year. Durum wheat was up almost 12 per cent.
StatCan estimated canola production at 21.8 million tonnes, up more than 13 per cent. It beat the previous high of just shy of 21.5 million tonnes – a record set back in 2017.
Most other Western-Canadian crops were also big ones and larger than expected in September estimates. Lentil production is expected to increase more than 38 per cent on the year at about 3.4 million tonnes. Pea production was the largest since 2020, up more than 31 per cent at about 3.9 million tonnes.
Food prices up, driven by high meat costs
Food prices rose by around four per cent in 2025, though meat prices rose by five to seven per cent. That’s according to Dalhousie University’s new Canada’s Food Price Report.
Beef prices soared – particularly in the first quarter of the year – and sit at 23 per cent above the five-year average.
High beef prices have, in turn, boosted the profile of chicken said Sylvain Charlebois, who is one of the authors of the report. This has led to more imports of U.S. chicken.
The report forecasts that food prices will rise by four to six per cent in 2026. That means an average family of four could expect to pay almost 1000 dollars more on groceries over the year.
Food prices are up 27 per cent from five years ago.
Bangladesh emerges as top buyer of Canadian wheat
So far this crop year instead of the usual suspects of China, Japan or Indonesia, Bangladesh has been Canada’s top wheat customer for this crop year.
The country has purchased nearly 547,000 tonnes so far compared to 56,200 tonnes at the same time last year.
This is a big reason why Canada’s total exports are exceeding last year’s record pace. Canada shipped out 7.17 million tonnes of wheat through the sixteenth week of the crop year. That’s compared to 6.35 million tonnes last year.
Bangladesh’s purchases can fluctuate from year to year, but it can be a substantial buyer said analyst Bruce Burnett. Buyers there like the quality of Canadian wheat, and the price is right due to a global glut of the commodity.
Bangladesh also purchases Australian wheat, so some of its demand for Canadian wheat may taper off.
