Photo: Allan Dawson/File

Prairie forecast: Hot east, cool west

Forecast issued May 7, covering May 7 to 14, 2025

We saw a strong ridge of high pressure build in last week, which brought daytime highs into the low thirties across parts of the eastern Prairies. Once the ridge collapsed, cooler air moved back in. Well, it looks like we can expect another cycle of building and collapsing ridges. Then, starting on the weekend, the weather pattern should become more energetic thanks to a strong trough of low pressure forecasted to develop off the West Coast.

This week’s map shows the forecast temperature anomalies across Canada and the U.S. for June, July, and August according to the CanSIP weather model. Orange and reds are above average temperatures.

A dry spring may slide into a dry summer on the Prairies

Long range forecasts in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta all expect lack of rain for summer 2025

Reading Time: 4 minutes The rain tap might slow to a trickle on the Canadian Prairies this summer. Long range forecasts in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta all expect little precipitation in coming months.



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Prairie forecast: Here comes the summery weather

Forecast issued April 30, covering April 30 to May 7, 2025

Well, one week is up and as I pointed out in last week's forecast, the weather pattern still looks like it is going to flip from a cool-ish spring regime right into a summer-like pattern. This flip should happen over the next few days.


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Prairie forecast: Warm weather gaining ground

Forecast issued April 23, covering April 23 to 30, 2025

We start this forecast period with an area of low pressure exiting the eastern Prairie and taking the rain and wet snow with it. To the west, a weak frontal system looks ready to drop into northern Alberta where it should bring scattered showers.

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Prairie forecast: Temperature rollercoaster to continue

Forecast issued April 16, covering April 16 to 23, 2025

Spring is the toughest time to forecast, but this spring is being particularly tough. The atmosphere is in a very meridional flow right now. That means there are lots of troughs and ridges. So, instead of a persistent westerly flow across our region we are seeing warm southerly flows as ridges build, followed by cool northerly flows as the ridges collapse and are replaced by troughs of low pressure.


Heading into spring, much of the Prairie region has average soil moisture, according to the Palmer Drought Index, with the western part of the region showing above-average levels. The largest areas with below-average soil moisture are the northern part of the Peace region, a pocket straddling the central border of Manitoba and Saskachewan, and a similar pocket at the southern portion of that provincial boundary.

Sea ice continues shrinking

The last few years have seen some of the smallest sea ice coverage, plus a look into the continued spring melt on the Prairies

Reading Time: 4 minutes The last few years have seen some of the smallest sea ice coverage, plus a look into the continued spring melt on the Prairies.

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Prairie forecast: Warm start, unsettled weekend across extreme south

Forecast issued April 9, covering April 9 to 16, 2025

When we have these battles between warm and cold air, there's always a good chance for a storm system or area of low pressure to develop. We've seen this happen a few times this spring and looking at the latest medium range weather models, the Prairies are likely in for a few more storms as the battle continues.


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Prairie forecast: Two lows and a high

Forecast issued April 2, covering April 2 to 9, 2025

This forecast period looks to be be defined by two areas of low pressure, one spinning off the west coast and the other spinning over eastern Canada. Exactly how these two lows behave a move will have a big impact on temperatures across the central and eastern Prairies.

Spring weather on the Prairies is a messy thing

Spring weather on the Prairies is a messy thing

Alberta’s spring, along with the other Prairie provinces, has a lot of chaos built in as seasons change and summer tries to assert itself

Reading Time: 4 minutes Alberta’s spring, along with the other Prairie provinces, has a lot of chaos built in as seasons change and summer tries to assert itself


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