AAFC revises crop estimates

Export, new-crop production outlooks revised lower for flax

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Published: February 18, 2023

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(Dave Bedard photo)

MarketsFarm — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) on Friday released its February supply and demand estimates with numerous small changes.

AAFC held its projections for 2022-23 grains and oilseeds production at 89.489 million tonnes. As for exports, the department reduced them from 45.715 million tonnes last month to now 45.49 million. Furthermore, domestic usage was trimmed from 44.528 million tonnes to 44.506 million. However, ending stocks were bumped up from 10.565 million tonnes, to 10.815 million.

Among the most notable changes came in 2022-23 flax exports, which were chopped from January’s call of 375,000 tonnes to 150,000 this month. There were small tweaks as well, with domestic usage for canola lowered from 9.748 million tonnes last month to now 9.738 million.

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As for the coming 2023-24 crop year, AAFC lowered grain and oilseed production from 88.045 million tonnes in January to 87.965 million, with only flaxseed revised downward on the month.

Exports for 2023-24 were kept at 45.865 million tonnes, while domestic usage was cut from 44.696 million tonnes to 44.471 million. Projected ending stocks for 2023-24 were adjusted from 10.96 million tonnes last month to 11.355 million this month.

Table: February estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand, in millions of metric tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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