Chicago | Reuters—U.S. wheat futures hit a one-week high on Wednesday, supported by signs that supply pressure from the Black Sea export region may be easing, analysts said.
Soybean futures firmed and corn eked out a higher close after a choppy session as traders adjusted positions ahead of key monthly crop reports due Thursday from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) that will include updated U.S. crop production estimates.
Chicago Board of Trade December wheat Wv1 settled up 5 cents at $5.79-1/4 per bushel after reaching $5.82-1/4, the contract’s highest level since Sept. 4.
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Benchmark CBOT soybean futures Sv1 ended up 3-1/4 cents at $10.00-1/2 a bushel and corn Cv1 rose 1/2 cent to finish at $4.04-3/4 a bushel.
Wheat markets have been pressured in recent months by brisk exports from Russia and Ukraine. But doubts over the size of Russia’s harvest were tempering supply expectations.
“Today’s news about the Black Sea counties lowering their wheat export prospects and China’s domestic (soy) crush remaining strong after last month’s record August imports could be behind this morning’s support,” said Jerry Gidel, an analyst with Midland Research.
Consultancy IKAR has cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop to 82.2 million metric tons from 83.8 million tons, citing adverse weather.
Ukraine’s domestic and export wheat prices, meanwhile, are likely to rise in the coming weeks due to much smaller wheat stocks, major agricultural producers’ group the Ukrainian Agrarian Council and analysts said.
Ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA reports, analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expect the government to leave its U.S. 2024 soybean yield forecast unchanged and slightly trim its corn yield estimate.
“Because the trade estimates are so close to neutral, I think a surprise is in the offing,” said Jason Ward, analyst at Minneapolis-based Northstar, adding, “I just wish we knew which way it was going to be.”
Meanwhile, traders are monitoring the approach of Hurricane Francine, which is expected to make landfall in the U.S. Gulf later on Wednesday, bringing heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flooding to the region.
—Additional reporting for Reuters by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore.
