Highlights:
- High chances of warm and sunny weather across all three Prairie provinces
- Chances of showers in Manitoba on Friday evening and Saturday morning
- Chances of significant rain in south and central Saskatchewan later next week, but confidence is low
We appear to be in a fairly predictable weather pattern as the overall weather picture has been pretty good.
We saw upper-level ridging last week bring average to above average temperatures across the Prairies. The forecasted area of low pressure over the eastern Prairies materialized as forecasted. As often typical with upper-level lows, the system moved further north than originally expected and took a day or two longer to move out.
That slow motion allowed the forecasted upper-level ridge over the central Prairies to build more than expected, which resulting in very warm temperatures across parts of Alberta and most of Saskatchewan.
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Summary
We start this forecast period off with a broad upper ridge of high pressure across the Prairies and surface high pressure over the western U.S. ridging northwards to anther high over Hudson Bay. There’s also an area of low pressure over the Yukon that’s forecasted to dive southeastwards across the northern Prairies. This low will drag a cold front across the Prairies. This will mostly bring slightly cooler temperatures. Northern regions may see some showers or even the odd thundershower as the low slides by.
Over the weekend, a second low is forecasted to drop southeastwards out of the Northwest Territories. This will bring a chance of showers to central Manitoba overnight Friday and into Saturday morning. Cooler air will move in behind this low but overall temperatures will remain above average for this time of the year.
Early next week, the weather models are showing a strong area of low pressure building in off the Pacific. Should this materialize, it will bring a strong surge of warm air northwards, keeping the Prairies under what looks to be another week of summer like temperatures.
Alberta
Just like the rest of the Prairie provinces, this forecast is short and sweet if you like warm temperatures and dry conditions. Weak upper-level ridging will be in place from Wednesday through to Sunday bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Expect daytime highs across southern and central regions to be in the upper teens to low twenties with northern regions mostly in the upper teens.
The weather models show a few weak impulses moving through the province during this period. The first is forecasted to move though late on Wednesday and the second on Friday. Both systems will be confined to the north half of the province with only a slight chance of showers.
A strong area of low pressure is forecasted to move in off the Pacific around Monday or Tuesday. Confidence in this feature is low but should it evolve as currently forecasted the low will lift northeastwards into northern Alberta bringing with it a surge of warm air with daytime highs forecasted to be in the low to mid-twenties form Monday to Wednesday with overnight lows falling to around the 8 C mark.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
This forecast period is looking short and sweet, that is if what you want is plenty of sunshine with little or no chances of rain. Weak upper ridging is going to dominate the forecast with a few weak disturbances tracking by to our north every three or four days.
The first disturbance is forecasted to track across the far northern parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Wednesday. This low will drag a weak cold front across the region dropping daytime highs down into the low twenties. A second area of low pressure is forecasted to develop over central to northern Alberta on Thursday and then track northeastward to southern Hudson Bay by Friday. Warm air will be pulled northwards ahead of this low on Friday before these regions see a quick one day cool down on Saturday as the low passes and cooler air tries to push southwards.
Weak ridging ahead of a developing area of low pressure early next week will bring a mix of sun and clouds to the region along with well above seasonable temperatures. Expect daytime highs into the low to mid-twenties with overnight lows falling into the upper single digits. This area of low pressure has the potential to bring some significant rainfall to parts of southern and central Saskatchewan later in the week but as usual, confidence in this is low this far out.
