U.S. grain trader and processor Bunge on Wednesday lowered its 2025 earnings forecast following its merger with Viterra, and said it is overhauling segment and volume reporting to align with its integrated operations.
Shares of the company, however, rose 11.6 per cent in early trading. UBS analyst Manav Gupta said investors had feared a worse outlook.
“Dilution is coming in much better than expected. This lifts the overhang on the stock and we expect a big relief rally in this name,” Gupta said in a note.
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Why it matters: The merger of Viterra and Bunge, which created a company of similar scale to Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill, raised concerns among Canadian farm groups over the effects of market consolidation.
Bunge completed its merger with Glencore-backed Viterra in July, two years after announcing the $34 billion (C$47.7 billion) mega-deal.
“We believe based on updated provided today, that Viterra might not cause any dilution in 2026, setting up for a potentially big beat and raise for 2026,” Gupta added.
The merger with the Netherlands-based Viterra creates a global crop trading and processing giant that is poised to rival agribusiness giants Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill.
Meanwhile, slumping grain prices, weak crop-processing margins and geopolitical tensions have eroded profitability in the sector.
Bunge does not plan to provide specific outlook for 2026 until the first half of the year as it is navigating biofuel policy uncertainties and trade issues, company executives told investors on a conference call.
From the third quarter, its results will include separate segments for soybean, softseed, other oilseeds, as well as another division for grain merchandising and milling.
Bunge projects softseeds to become more “meaningful” and the combined company to see a big increase in handling and processing of corn, wheat and barley.
The company now expects 2025 adjusted earnings per share between $7.30 and $7.60 (C$10.25 to $10.67), compared with $7.75 per share forecast earlier. Analysts estimate the company’s full-year adjusted profit per share at $7.47, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Bunge is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on November 5.
