Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures retreated on Monday from last week’s 17-month high, as traders waited for signs of more Chinese buying of U.S. beans and details from the latest call between Washington and Beijing, market analysts said.
China bought 1.584 million tons of U.S. soybeans last week, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday announced exporters sold 123,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery.
But traders are still hoping for substantially more Chinese buying as U.S. officials said China had agreed to buy 12 million tons by the end of this year after President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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A White House official on Monday confirmed Trump and Xi had spoken by phone but gave no details about the call. China’s state news agency Xinhua reported the two discussed Taiwan, as well as the war in Ukraine.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Monday that the Trump administration expects to announce an aid package for U.S. farmers within two weeks and a deal on Chinese soybean purchases, but did not provide further details.
“The market is sitting here wondering, ‘What do you think they talked about?’” said Dan Basse, president of consultancy AgResource Co. “Given the uncertainty, people are trying not to be too aggressively short, or too aggressively long, with their positions.”
Meanwhile, CBOT wheat futures ended lower on global supplies and falling Russian wheat prices, traders said. Corn futures eased, as grain prices remained under pressure from global supplies, weakness in the wheat and soybean markets, and the recent pace of U.S. farmer selling, traders said.
Some traders said U.S. wheat futures also were pressured by low prices paid by Saudi Arabia in a wheat tender on Monday, with the Black Sea and possibly Argentina expected to dominate the purchase with a record Argentine wheat crop.
Chicago Board of Trade’s most-active soybeans Sv1 settled down 1-3/4 cents at $11.23-1/4 a bushel. Corn Cv1 ended down 3/4-cent at $4.36-3/4 a bushel and wheat Wv1 closed 5 cents lower at $5.34-3/4 a bushel.
Brazilian soybean premiums have also fallen, making them cheaper than U.S. supplies and the logical choice for most importers – not just China, said Susan Stroud, founder and analyst at No Bull Agriculture.
“The bigger issue is that the market is questioning how much more business really can be done by the end of the year,” Stroud said. “Because not only is the U.S. trying to compete for Chinese business, but we’ve also lost the rest of the world’s business, too.”
— Additional reporting by Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Peter Hobson in Canberra.
