Reading Time: 3 minutes What turns a regular thunderstorm into a severe thunderstorm, or occasionally, into a thunderstorm that you truly remember? First, there is a hot humid air mass in place, the air a few thousand feet up is very cold, providing for good lift, and there is a strong jet stream overhead to provide venting at the […] Read more
The ingredients for a severe summer storm
Air temperature and movement determine whether it will be a storm to remember
Updated prairie forecast: unsettled start as sub-arctic high builds in
Issued July 26, covers July 26 to August 2
Update: A low tracking through central prairies is a little weaker than expected. This will result in less precipitation with showers, thundershowers, and storms being less widespread. Another issue is the smoke which can be difficult to predict. Areas with smoke we see cooler than expected daytime highs. An upper ridge that brought plenty of […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Summer heat to build back in
Issued July 19, covering July 19 to 26
It looks like the overall weather pattern is going to undergo another shift. After nearly two weeks of unseasonably cool and unsettled weather over the eastern half of the Prairies, with near-average conditions over the west, it looks like more typically summer weather will move back in. The massive area of low pressure that spun […] Read more
Prairie Forecast Update: Low pushes southeast instead
The area of low pressure that was predicted to develop over central Alberta on Monday, July 17th still looks on track to develop. This will mean clouds and showers over north-central regions of Alberta late on Monday and into early Tuesday. There may be some thunderstorms overnight Monday over south-central regions. This low was originally […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Large Hudson Bay low dominates
Forecast issued July 12, covering July 12-19
As the weather models correctly predicted, a large and extremely strong area of low pressure formed over Hudson Bay during the last forecast period, bringing the expected cool and unsettled weather to the eastern half of the Prairies. Over the western half of the Prairies a weak upper-level ridging brought, for the most part, sunny […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Big change in weather pattern
Issued July 5, covering July 5-12
Most people have been saying that June felt like July and the weather statistics agreed. Well, if the weather models are correct, it’s looking like July will feel more like June — at least for the next forecast period. Here is the big picture before we dive into the details for each of the three […] Read more
Alberta leads country in dreaded hail
You don’t necessarily need a tall thunderstorm to produce hail stones
Reading Time: 3 minutes Hail is probably the most feared and costly type of severe summer weather. If you’ve lived any significant amount of time on the Prairies, you have likely experienced a hailstorm. While hail can occur anywhere across North America, there are two main regions where incidence is significantly higher — the central United States and the […] Read more
Prairie Forecast Update: Low lingers in Manitoba
Issued July 2, covering July 3 to 5
The overall forecast remains on track across both Alberta and Saskatchewan, so only a small update is needed for Manitoba. Across Manitoba, the area of low pressure that has been tracking across the northern half of the Prairie provinces is now forecasted to take a little longer to exit this region. The two main impacts […] Read more
Prairie Forecast: Alberta low to bring bit of a cooldown
Issued June 28, covering June 28 to July 5
After a fairly active weather pattern over the last few days, at least across the eastern half of the Prairies, it looks like most regions will see much quieter few days to start off this forecast period. Weak upper-level ridging combine with a broad but weak area of surface high pressure should bring typical summer […] Read more
Prairie Forecast Update: Low to push across region’s east
Update issued June 25, covering June 25-28
There has been a little bit of a shift in the overall weather pattern according to the latest weather model runs. The arctic high is dropping east-southeast as expected and will be around James Bay by the middle of this week. Along the southern boundary of the arctic air, the weather models show an area […] Read more
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