CBOT weekly outlook: Beans choppy ahead of data, corn sideways

CNS Canada –– Chicago Board of Trade corn prices are set to trade sideways over the course of the week as the market awaits fresh news, but that staleness is in direct contrast with the turbulence in soybeans.

Soybeans – “They’re going to trade pretty choppy,” said Terry Reilly at Futures International.

Soybeans should feel resistance around $9.175 per bushel, Reilly said, adding that support is at $8.90 (all figures US$).

May soybeans closed at $9.0525 on Wednesday, gaining 10.75 cents per bushel from last week’s prices.

Traders are comparing old-crop and new-crop spreads, Reilly said, especially as China’s crush margins have declined, and the country has been buying both Brazilian and U.S. beans.

“So we’ll be watching for possible Chinese cancellations over the next week for old-crop, and for them to add on hedges for new-crop by buying beans.”

Spreads in the soybean market will probably widen, he added, and since weather concerns are minimal, traders are focusing on demand.

Traders are watching open interest in soybeans for upward trend indications.

“The open interest has really gone up; it’s really on the heavy side with soybeans right now,” Reilly said.

Corn – Prices are in a sideways trading range as the market waits for fresh data.

Reilly expects prices to trade between $3.63 and $3.72 over the course of the week, ahead of a prospective plantings report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, due out March 31.

U.S. export interest is seeing slight gains as Brazil shifts from exporting corn to soybeans.

“That will be closely monitored, with the export inspections and the export sales report.”

Weekly export sales are released every Thursday; the next two are on March 24 and March 31, while export inspections are released on Mondays, with the following two on March 28 and April 4.

May corn closed at $3.685 on Wednesday; since last week that contract has gained about a quarter of a cent.

Jade Markus writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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