CBOT weekly outlook: Corn, soy watching weather for direction

CNS Canada –– Chicago Board of Trade corn and soybean markets moved lower during the week ended Wednesday, but stayed within their recent trading ranges.

“We haven’t broken down out of a range yet, or broke to the upside,” said Scott Capinegro, president of Barrington Commodity Brokers in Barrington, Ill. “We are just flat and dead, and it’s searching for news.”

Markets are starting to shift their focus to weather for the planting of U.S. corn and soybean crops for 2015-16. As of early April, weather was looking too wet in some regions, and too dry in others.

“The western Corn Belt is still a bit on the dry side, with rains coming. And the Delta and the eastern Corn Belt are wet and the pattern doesn’t seem to change there,” Capinegro said.

If weather continues to be wet in the Delta region, there could be some acres moving into soybeans instead of corn because farmers in the area don’t like to seed too late.

“They don’t like to plant that far behind because of the heat that they can experience during the summer time,” Capinegro said.

The Delta region was intending to seed about 4.5 million acres of corn. But about 300,000 acres of that could shift into soybeans if the soggy weather continues for an extended period of time, he added.

Another three million acres, not accounted for in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 31 planting projections report, will have to go somewhere, according to Capinegro.

Thursday’s monthly supply and demand report from USDA will also be important for the CBOT corn and bean markets, as traders will be watching for any surprises.

Expectations are for bearish numbers in the corn market, though all the figures will be for old crop and shouldn’t be that much of a surprise for either corn or soybeans.

An unexpected number could trigger a move in the market, but it isn’t likely to last long as spring weather conditions will move back into the spotlight and help determine price direction for the 2015-16 crop.

“If we don’t have a weather event this spring and summer, I would say that we’re just going to drift and stay at low prices,” Capinegro added.

Terryn Shiells writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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