CBOT weekly outlook: Soy waits on Argentine weather, inspections

CNS Canada — Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade hung mostly rangebound during the week ended Wednesday. Attention now shifts to the crop in South America.

“People will be watching the Argentine weather situation to see if it has any changes in the second-week forecast of 11 to 15 days,” said Terry Reilly, a senior analyst with Futures International in Chicago.

Growing conditions for soybeans in Argentina are generally considered too dry and have been credited with some of the bullish action in recent weeks.

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“So we expect January beans to remain above $10.30 (per bushel) and possibly rally to the $10.80 level.” (All figures US$.)

Traders, he added, will be looking at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s next export inspections report very carefully.

“Last week we saw a good drop in soybean inspections and if that trend continues that’s something we’re going to have to closely monitor.”

The corn market continues to chop around in its recently-established range with attention shifting to South America, now that the U.S. harvest is over.

“Looking at the March contract I think we’ll remain anywhere from a $3.50 to a $3.70 trading range,” said Reilly.

The cash market is mostly silent right now as U.S. farmers wait for attractive prices.

Basis levels in the Gulf of Mexico are said to be soft right now which could mean demand is not as solid as it was a few weeks ago.

— Dave Sims writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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