CBOT weekly outlook: Trade uncertainty weighs

MarketsFarm — Lack of demand for corn exports has continued to drag prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the U.S. dollar has been stronger recently, making exports even less attractive, according to Terry Reilly, a grains analyst with Futures International.

In contrast, consistent soybean sales since Monday have provided some support to the market.

“This morning we got another sale of soybeans to an unknown destination, that could be China,” Reilly said.

However, the future of the trade deal between the U.S. and China is uncertain, which has also weighed on the market. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump said phase one of the trade deal with China “could happen soon” but, if not, he may raise tariffs “very substantially.”

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This week’s crop progress report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed harvest activity proceeded at a slower rate than the CBOT anticipated.

“Weather will improve next week for the U.S. in general, and it’ll probably significantly improve harvest,” Reilly said.

“Producers will be able to pull more beans and corn out of the ground.”

The crop progress report also reduced the winter wheat quality rating by three points, which “was a surprise as well.” However, he said, “It’s still early.”

Reilly expected the reduced quality rating to be widely ignored, as “wheat is still expected to move into dormancy at a normal pace, and the bulk of development will be when it re-emerges in the spring.”

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.

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