CBOT weekly outlook: ‘Tricky’ USDA report due Friday

The USDA building in Washington, D.C. (Art Wager/iStock/Getty Images)

MarketsFarm — With the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) set to issue its monthly supply and demand estimates (WASDE) on Friday, a broker said it will be a “tricky report.”

That’s because of the impact Hurricane Ida had on the U.S. transportation system, according to Scott Capinegro of Barrington Commodities at Barrington, Ill.

In particular, grain movement along the Mississippi River has continued to be impaired by Ida and several Gulf Coast loading facilities were also damaged.

“We’re definitely not going to be a rally,” Capinegro said, noting the report will still be something of a market mover.

“I don’t know if it will be a real shocker to the market or not. It’s hard to say.”

At about $5.15 per bushel, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December corn dropped to four-week lows, Capinegro said, with support at $4.80 (all figures US$).

Support for November soybeans was around $12.50/bu., with prices currently around $12.80.

June’s WASDE report had about three million missing acres, Capinegro said, of which he expects a portion to return to U.S. corn.

In that report, the department had pegged planted corn acres at 91.1 million, with harvest acres projected to be 83.5 million. The August WASDE, which held to the July numbers, placed planted corn acres at 92.7 million with 84.5 million to be harvested.

“I don’t know if we will get the fully million because you have to think about the silage being cut [and] there might be some abandonment acres out there,” Capinegro suggested.

The broker stressed a better picture of things will come about 10 to 14 days after the September report, when corn and soybean harvests are likely to be underway.

“That’s when the trade is really going to start listening to what guys are saying about how their crops are shaping up,” he said.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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