CBOT weekly outlook: USDA’s acreage report could push up prices

CBOT September 2019 corn (candlesticks) and MGEX September 2019 wheat (orange line). (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — At least one analyst predicts the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s next acreage report, due out Friday, could have a bullish effect at the Chicago Board of Trade.

“If we come in near trade expectations for the (soybeans), it might be supportive,” said Terry Reilly, grains analyst with Futures International in Chicago.

Trade expectations are for about 84.36 million acres of soybeans, down from the 84.62 million forecast in USDA’s March acreage report.

Reilly said the same could result for corn. However, he cautioned, until USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service releases its report, “we have no idea of how this is going to play out.”

Corn is expected to come in at about 86.7 million acres, down from the 89.8 million reported in March.

A break from the rainy weather that has plagued the U.S. Midwest this year has meant farmers should be able to plant more soybeans. For a change, the forecast of rain next week would be beneficial to the crop’s growth rather than a hindrance.

Although corn planting has been gaining nationally, Reilly said farmers across northern Indiana, northern Ohio and lower Michigan have continued to struggle with getting corn into the ground.

“The producers probably will opt not to plant and maybe figure out other crops to plant at this point,” he said.

Reilly pointed to the G20 summit beginning Friday in Japan as something that could quickly negate the influence of the USDA acreage report.

Hopes are trade negotiations will resume after U.S. President Donald Trump meets one-on-one with Chinese President Xi Jinping. If talks get the green light, CBOT bids could rise. If negotiations don’t resume, bids could drop.

Regarding U.S. wheat, Reilly said that with Statistics Canada releasing its acreage report this morning, the drop in total Canadian wheat acres provided a boost for Minneapolis spring wheat bids.

Statistics Canada’s June report pegged total wheat acres at about 24.6 million, nearly 1.1 million less than in the agency’s March report.

Trade expectations call for total U.S. wheat to slip a little, from 45.75 million acres in March to 45.65 million.

— Glen Hallick writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.


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