Paris | Reuters — European Union soft wheat is set to benefit from the escalating trade war between the United States and China, consultancy Strategie Grains said, as it raised its output estimates for all major EU cereals this year due to improved growing conditions.
Beijing imposed 84 per cent tariffs on U.S. imports on Wednesday, April 9, to match U.S. President Donald Trump’s earlier moves, making U.S. grains less competitive on world markets. The trade war further escalated when Trump announced a 125 per cent tariff despite pausing reciprocal tariffs for most trading partners.
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The EU has been a regular wheat supplier to China in recent years but demand has faded this season due to good local supplies.
Meanwhile EU retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, including maize (corn) from April 15, were expected to bring U.S. corn imports to a halt and eat into EU maize stocks next season, Strategie Grains said.
Further down the road, demand for EU grains could benefit from planned tariffs on U.S. soybeans, it also said. These are set to enter force on December 1.
In terms of supply and demand, Strategie Grains increased its forecast for EU soft wheat production in 2025/26, citing improved growing conditions.
The latest projection places EU soft wheat output at 128.1 million metric tons, up from 127.5 million tons forecast last month and now 13 per cent above last season’s rain-hit harvest.
“Although not spectacular, growing conditions for winter cereals improved in the EU27 thanks to the arrival of rains in the southeast EU countries, and a break in the rains across northwest Europe,” Strategie Grains said.
However, “cereals crops are not yet out of the woods and harvest time is still a long way off,” it added, citing excessive rainfall in Spain.
The consultancy also raised its barley production forecasts for 2025/26 by 600,000 tons, to 51.2 million tons, now up three per cent on year.
Maize production, is forecast to reach 60.1 million tons, up 100,000 tons from last month, and 2.9 per cent above last year.
