ICE outlook: Canola stuck in range

ICE Futures Canada canola contracts held within a narrow range during the week ended Wednesday, trading to both sides of unchanged but eventually posting small advances as the market awaits some fresh fundamental news to push it one way or the other.

From a technical standpoint, the November contract has held within a narrow range of about C$476 to $490 for the past three weeks.

The Canadian canola harvest is over 90 per cent complete, with the remaining fields generally said to need about week of good weather to be finished off.

With the harvest wrapping up, prices will find themselves dictated by the “classic tug of war” over the winter months, said Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities in Winnipeg, noting any rallies will encourage more farmer selling, while any declines will draw in more exporter buying.

“The only wild card that could be friendly is if we have any South American weather problems,” said Ferley.

On the other side, he said, a move below US$12.60 per bushel in the CBOT November soybean contract would be bearish from a technical standpoint, and likely weigh on canola.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

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