ICE weekly outlook: Swings ahead for canola

ICE November 2021 canola (candlesticks) with 20-day moving average (yellow line) and CBOT December 2021 soyoil (green line, left column). (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — If anything is certain for canola values, it’s that they are going to be swingy for the next while, according to Ken Ball of PI Financial in Winnipeg.

Canola bids, especially new-crop, have been on the downswing lately, largely due to precipitation the Prairies recently received.

While the resulting moisture won’t rectify the drought conditions across much of the region, it was very much needed to give canola and other crops a boost, be they germinating, emerging or leafing out.

“It’s going to swingy and there will be opportunities for everybody, no matter what you want to do,” Ball said.

Since the rain fell, he said, a speculative sell-off developed in the canola market, seeing values pull back. Added to that was newfound confidence farmers now have in the crops following the beneficial precipitation.

Soyoil has peaked as well for the being, Ball said, especially with China’s new crackdown on commodity speculation that’s brought some pressure to North American markets.

That crackdown generated a drop of 37 cents per bushel in the July corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday. At one point, July bottomed out at its limit of 40 cents per bushel.

China’s move also added to declines in soyoil, which in turn pressured canola. However, Ball said, ICE canola was about $7-$8 per tonne cheaper than CBOT soybeans, as the Canadian oilseed continued to lag behind the overall movements of soybeans.

Crush margins were at the highest levels he’s ever seen, he said — a situation he stressed isn’t sustainable.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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