As we head into the final week of May, it is looking to be very summerlike across much of the Prairies. Currently there is a strong area of cool high pressure centred over the Great Lakes. This area of high pressure is what brought cool and windy conditions to the eastern Prairies on Wednesday. As this high wobbles in place over the next several days the clockwise flow of air around the high will start to tap into summerlike heat over the U.S. south and pump it northward.
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At the same time, a weak ridge of high pressure will build across the central Prairies. This ridging, combined with the southerly flow around the eastern high, will help to push temperatures into the upper 20s and even the low 30s across much of the Prairies by late in the weekend. The warmth will begin first in Manitoba, then progress northwest across Saskatchewan and then into central and northern Alberta.
The weather models are not showing any organized storm systems thanks to the building upper ridge. With that said, the increasing temperatures and humidity will combine with some weak disturbances riding up from the south, to bring the chance of thundershowers on almost any day starting around Friday.
Alberta
After a dry and warm start to the spring compared to the rest of the Prairies, it looks like Alberta will see a bit of a break. With the core of the upper ridge expected to centre itself over Saskatchewan, it will take a few days before the heat begins to build back in. Expect daytime highs to be in the low 20s before warming into the mid-20s by the weekend and then into the upper 20s to low 30s by Sunday or Monday. While there is the chance of the odd shower or thundershower, this forecast period looks to be mostly dry.
Saskatchewan
With the core of the upper ridge expected to be over Saskatchewan, expect warm temperatures. Daytime highs will be in the upper 20s to low 30s by Friday and look to stay there for most of this forecast period. The warm temperatures, combined with dewpoints rising into the mid-teens — energy moving northward — will give this region a good chance of seeing thundershowers or even some organized thunderstorms. Best chance for this looks to be on Thursday and then again late in the weekend.
Manitoba
The strong southerly flow around the eastern high will being to push warm summerlike conditions into Manitoba on Thursday. Expect daytime highs to start out in the mid- to upper 20s and warm toward the upper 20s to low 30s by the weekend. Just like with Saskatchewan, increasing temperatures and dewpoints will combine with energy moving northward out of the U.S. to bring at least a couple of rounds of scattered thundershowers or storms. The first chance will be in the Saturday-Sunday timeframe, with the second good chance coming in the Monday-Tuesday period.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
