Our weather pattern looks to be on the brink of a shift as a trough of low pressure begins to develop along the West Coast.
For those of you in Alberta, this will mean cooler and wetter conditions. In Manitoba, it looks like summer will continue for at least one more week. If you are in Saskatchewan, well, you will be stuck in the middle of these two features. It will all depend on how the pattern sets up and where you live.
Currently there’s an area of low-pressure lifting northeastwards out of the southern Nunavut. Behind this low an area of high pressure is sliding southeastwards across the northern Prairies. This high will somewhat cool the central and eastern Prairies on Wednesday.
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Further west, a couple of areas of low pressure are forecasted to drop down the coast from the Gulf of Alaska, which will help to slowly dig a sizable trough of low pressure across that region. Over eastern Canada and the northeastern U.S., the weather models show an area of high pressure building and stalling out during this forecast period.
Putting this all together this is what look to happen: the eastern high will block the eastern movement of systems. The first area of low pressure dropping down the West Coast should move inland and strengthen over Montana. This low is then forecasted to move nearly due north thanks to the blocking ridge in the east. The question is just where the blocking boundary set up.
Currently it looks like it will lift northwards and track from southern Alberta towards northern Saskatchewan. Areas to the north and west of this low track will see shower and/or rain and cool temperatures. Areas to the east will see sunny to partly cloudy skies and continued summery temperatures. This low should move out by Saturday or Sunday.
Early next week, the weather models are showing a second low tracking down the West Coast, coming inland, the then strengthening – very similar to the first low. The one difference is that this low is predicted to track a little further east before lifting north. This means that Saskatchewan will have the best chance of seeing precipitation from this system.
Alberta
Central and northern regions should start this forecast period with partly to mostly cloudy skies and near seasonal temperatures. Southern regions will be cloudy and cool with showers or rain developing late in the day. This precipitation will work northwards on Thursday as the low begin to lift northeastwards. The slow speed of this low means that showers and rain may stick around until at least Friday across most of the province.
It looks like there will be a bit of a break over the weekend with skies become partly cloudy and highs in most regions expected to be in the upper teens to low twenties. Overnight lows will fall into the upper single digits.
By late Sunday or early Monday, a second area of low pressure is forecasted to begin strengthening over Montana and begin lifting northeastwards. Currently it looks like this low will track a little further east into Saskatchewan with only southern and far eastern regions likely to see any precipitation. With the rest of the province being on the back side of the low, expect to see cloudy to partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the mid-teens with overnight lows falling into the upper single digits.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
This forecast period will start with a bit of a cool down as a cool area of high-pressure tracks across northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This won’t last for more than a day as a large area of low pressure develops over the northwestern U.S. The circulation around this low will pull warm air northwards. By Thursday, highs across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba are forecast to push into the upper twenties with lows only falling into the mid-teens.
As the U.S. low lift northeastwards, a strong southerly flow ahead of it will bring mild air northwards. Manitoba will see the most sunshine and the warmest temperatures as the main low and clouds stay well to the west. Expect daytime highs to continue in the mid to upper twenties and overnight lows to only fall to the low to mid-teens. Across Saskatchewan, the southeast part will be the warmest with temperatures decreasing and cloud cover increasing as you move to the northwest. The best chance of rainfall looks to be on Friday over the western half of the province.
The weekend looks to be dry and warm with sunny to partly cloudy skies and daytime highs ranging from the mid-twenties across Saskatchewan and into the upper twenties across Manitoba. By early next week a second area of low pressure is forecasted to lift northeastwards out of the northwestern U.S. This low looks to track into Saskatchewan. It brings a good chance of showers and even some thundershowers starting on Monday and lasting through Tuesday.
Across Manitoba, the chance of showers and thundershowers should begin on Tuesday and last through Wednesday as the low lifts to the northeast. As I always, I’d like to point out that this system is still a fair way off and much can happen between now and then. I haven’t had to do a forecast update in quite awhile, but if there are big changes to this second system watch for an update early next week.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
