I have been camping along the Great Lakes for the past week, and if you think predicting the weather across the Prairies or along the mountains in Alberta is tough, try to do it along the Great Lakes, especially Lake Superior.
While camping, I’ve been keeping an eye on the weather and have been getting updates from my kids and some of my readers. The forecasted heatwave occurred pretty close to what was forecasted, with the main exception being Manitoba which didn’t end up seeing the really intense heat that Alberta and much of Saskatchewan saw.
This forecast period will start with an area of low pressure forming over southern Alberta. This low is forecasted to slowly lift northwards, continue its slow trek eastwards across the northern Prairies, before finally exiting our region sometime over the weekend.
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This system looks like it’ll bring much-needed rains to central and northern Alberta, northern Saskatchewan and to a lesser extent, Manitoba. Along with the clouds and rain, these regions will see much cooler temperatures.
Southern Alberta, southern and central Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see another day or two of hot weather before the northern low drags a cold front southward, which will bring an end to this extended heatwave.
It doesn’t look like the cooler temperatures will stick around for long, as a weak upper ridge is forecasted to develop early next week. This should bring a return to warm/hot temperatures, but at this point it’s not looking like another prolonged heatwave.
Alberta
As mentioned, the weather models are showing an area of low pressure developing over southern regions on Wednesday. This low is forecasted to slowly drift northwards, taking until late Friday or Saturday to finally exit the province.
Central and northern regions will see extensive cloud cover with showers and thundershowers. It looks like most regions will see between 10 to 20 mm of rain, but there are some indications that western regions could see significantly more. I will leave that up to Environment Canada. Temperatures will be on the cool side with daytime highs forecasted to be in the 18 C range and overnight lows falling to around 12 C.
In the south, it looks like there will be one or two more days of heat before cooler temperatures moving in. Expect daytime highs to cool back into the low to mid-twenties by Friday except for extreme southern regions which will likely only cool down into the upper twenties. Skies look to remain mainly clear with no real chances for rain.
To start next week, the weather models show sunny to partly cloudy skies across the province as a weak upper ridge builds in.
Temperatures will warm over central and northern regions with daytime highs forecasted to be in the mid to upper twenties and overnight lows falling into the low to mid-teens. Further south, expect daytime highs in the upper twenties or low thirties. There’s a hint that an area of low pressure could bring some widely scattered thunderstorms to southern and central regions on Wednesday but confidence in this is low.
Saskatchewan
This region will see a couple of more days of extreme heats as the upper ridge responsible for it slowly moves eastwards and breaks down.
By Friday, all the heat warnings should be over with forecasted highs dropping down into the mid-twenties with overnight lows falling into the low to mid-teens. These cooler temperatures should last through the weekend and into the early part of next week before another upper ridge is forecasted to develop. This should bring a return to hot temperatures.
Fortunately it looks like these hot temperatures will only last a few days before cooler air moves back in. As for precipitation, the weather models are only showing a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms over central regions late on Friday and into Saturday as the Alberta low tracks across the northern part of the province.
Manitoba
Southern and central regions are forecasted to see a return to hot temperatures after cooler air pushed into the region earlier this week. As the western upper ridge pushes eastwards, expect mostly sunny skies and daytime highs in the low thirties on Thursday and Friday. The hottest temperatures are expected to be over western regions.
As the upper ridge continues to slide east and weaken, the weather models are showing a weak cold front associated with the northern Prairie low moving through late on Friday or early Saturday. With plenty of moisture in place, this front could trigger some thunderstorms—it depends on its timing.
Cooler air will move in behind this front. Daytime highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the low to mid-twenties with overnight lows falling to around 12 C.
Sunday and Monday look to be a little unsettled thanks to a cool pocket of air in the upper atmosphere. This means there will be a good chance of seeing some widely scattered afternoon and early evening thundershowers. By Wednesday, the weather models are showing an upper ridge developing which will bring a return to sunny skies and warm/hot temperatures. We will have to wait and see how long the heat will last but current indications are for only a few days of hot temperatures.
