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That said, here’s the big-picture view of the forecast for the next seven days. The weather picture starts off with a huge sprawling area of high pressure over Eastern Canada, bringing a southerly flow of warm air across the eastern Prairies. Over the western Prairies a deep area of low pressure off the West Coast will allow for an area of arctic high pressure to drop southward, bringing cooler-than-average temperatures to Alberta — what? That’s right, “cooler than average.” For those who haven’t been following Aberta weather, it has been on a five-month tear of above-average temperatures. While it looks cool across this region to start, the end of the forecast period shows warmer conditions moving back in, at least for a few days.
Over to the east, the combination of the eastern high the trough of low pressure off the West Coast will create a southwesterly flow. This setup often creates areas of low pressure over the western U.S., which will then ride northeastward, bringing unsettled weather to the eastern half of the Prairies. So far, the weather models are not getting too excited about any of these lows, but as usual, the deeper we move into fall, the greater the likelihood of these systems becoming strong.
Alberta
This forecast period will start off with weak areas of low pressure breaking off the main low off the coast of B.C. Each of these lows will bring a mix of sun and clouds along with the chance of showers. As each low passes it will help to open the door for arctic air to move southward. Expect daytime highs to cool from the upper teens across southern and central regions on Wednesday, down into the lower teens by Thursday or Friday. The exact timing of these lows is difficult to predict but in this type of pattern, southern and central regions should expect a good chance of showers nearly every afternoon. Northern regions will be cooler and drier with daytime highs mostly in the low to mid-teens.
It looks like things will clear out to start the first week of October as weak upper-level ridging builds in. This will help to moderate the temperatures with daytime highs, by Monday, pushing back toward the 20 C mark. The upper ridge does not look to last too long as an area of low pressure is forecasted to move across the region, bringing with it clouds, showers and cooler temperatures to end the forecast period.
Saskatchewan
This region will start off this forecast period with sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm conditions as the eastern high continues to push above average temperatures northward. A weak area of low pressure is forecasted to ride the ridge along the southwesterly flow, bringing with it the chance of showers late on Thursday and into Friday. Temperatures will start off on the mild side with highs around 20 C, but cooler air will work in behind the low, dropping daytime highs back into the mid-teens by Friday.
The weekend will see a battle between the northern area of high pressure and weak areas of low pressure trying to push northeastward. At this point it looks like the lows will win out, bringing a continuation of partly to mostly cloudy skies along with the chance of showers. Temperatures will be tricky: those areas that see more sun than clouds will see highs in the upper teens to around 20 C, while those with more cloud cover and showers will stay in the low to mid-teens. There does look to be some short-lived ridging moving in to start the first week of October, but then the weather models show a strong area of low pressure moving northward, bringing a good chance of rain around mid-week.
Manitoba
The eastern Canadian ridge of high pressure will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies on Wednesday ahead of a weak area of low pressure forecast to zip northeastward late Wednesday and into Thursday. This low will bring a good chance of showers to western regions, with a slight chance over southern and eastern regions. Weak high pressure will try to build into the region over the weekend, bringing some clearing skies and a continuation of above-seasonable temperatures, but another area of low pressure riding northeastward around the eastern Canadian high looks to bring more clouds and showers Sunday.
The mid-range forecast for the first week of October calls for a sunny and warm start to the week, with daytime highs forecasted to be in the upper teens to low 20s. By around Tuesday or Wednesday this region needs to keep an eye on an area of low pressure forecasted to move northward out to the central U.S. Current indications are that most of the precipitation from this low will fall over Saskatchewan, but it will bear watching.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
