Prairie wheat bids up sharply with weather worries

CNS Canada — Cash bids for Prairie wheat were up sharply during the week ended Friday, as weather worries in North America resulted in improved basis levels and pushed U.S. futures sharply higher.

Parts of Western Canada are too dry, harming production, while excess moisture in the U.S. is increasing disease pressure and slowing the winter wheat harvest.

Average Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat prices were C$24 per tonne to $27 per tonne higher, with bids ranging from about $232 per tonne in north-central Saskatchewan and Alberta’s Peace region, to as high as $241 per tonne in southern Alberta, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points across Western Canada.

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Quoted basis levels varied from location to location, but generally improved by about C$3 per tonne, to average about $9 above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between U.S. dollar-denominated futures and Canadian dollar cash bids.

When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to U.S. dollars, CWRS bids ranged from US$188 to $196 per tonne. That would put the currency-adjusted basis levels at about US$31-$39 below the futures.

Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada range from C$38 to $49 below the futures.

Average Canada Prairie Spring Red (CPSR) bids were C$25-$29 per tonne higher. CPSR prices came in at about $177 per tonne in Manitoba, $185 per tonne in Saskatchewan and $194-$203 per tonne in Alberta.

Soft white spring (CWSWS) wheat prices were up by C$37-$38 per tonne, ranging from $210 to $211 per tonne in Alberta.

Winter (CWRW) wheat prices were C$27-$30 per tonne higher across Western Canada, with prices ranging from $177 to $188 per tonne.

Durum (CWAD) prices held relatively steady in most areas. Bids in southern Saskatchewan, where the bulk of the crop is grown, were up by about C50 cents, at $285 per tonne.

The September spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, off of which most CWRS contracts in Canada are based, was quoted at US$6.215 per bushel on Friday, up 67.75 cents from the week prior.

Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPSR in Canada. The September K.C. wheat contract was quoted Friday at US$5.69 per bushel, up 56 cents from last week.

The September Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.68 on Friday, 75.5 cents stronger compared to the week prior.

The Canadian dollar closed Friday at US81.2 cents, down a third of a cent relative to its U.S. counterpart compared to the previous week.

Terryn Shiells writes for Commodity News Service Canada, a Winnipeg company specializing in grain and commodity market reporting.

Table: The weekly snapshot of average published prices as of June 29, 2015. Futures prices (US$ per tonne) vary slightly due to changes while data is collected. Cash bids (C$ per tonne) have currency conversion included in the basis. Source: AGCanada.com.

CWRSFutureBasisNet
Manitoba226.5112.92239.43
Sask North Central227.412.49229.90
Sask South226.085.77231.84
Alberta South225.4315.83241.25
Alberta Central225.7011.13236.83
Peace226.135.94232.07
CPSRFutureBasisNet
Manitoba211.88-34.76177.12
Sask North Central211.93-26.70185.23
Sask South211.53-26.87184.65
Alberta South211.42-8.69202.73
Alberta Central211.55-9.70201.85
Peace211.52-17.35194.16
CWSWSFutureBasisNet
Alberta South211.74-1.67210.07
Alberta Central211.74-1.19210.55
Peace211.74– 2.04209.70
CWRWFutureBasisNet
Manitoba211.83-23.72188.10
Sask North Central212.05-34.96177.09
Sask South211.53-29.85181.68
Alberta South211.42-34.78176.64
Alberta Central211.55-32.84178.72
Peace211.52-33.02178.49
CWAD  Net
Sask North Central287.77
Sask South284.58
Alberta South276.62
Alberta Central308.20

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