Glacier FarmMedia –– Canadian canola ending stocks will likely be tighter by the close of the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year, while the wheat carryout should rise, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released March 19.
Factoring updated acreage estimates from Statistics Canada, AAFC lowered their call for Canadian canola production in 2024/25 to 18.100 million tonnes, from 18.365 million in February. That compares with 18.328 million tonnes in the current 2023/24 marketing year. Projected exports were left unchanged at 7.000 million tonnes for 2023/24 and at 7.700 million in the new crop year. With only minor revisions to the domestic usage projections, canola ending stocks are now forecast to tighten to 1.650 million tonnes for 2024/25, from a projected 2.000 million in 2023/24.
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For wheat, total production was estimated at 34.593 million tonnes by the government agency. That was up by 667,000 tonnes from the February estimate and well above the 31.954 million tonnes grown in 2023/24. Canadian wheat ending stocks are forecast to rise to 4.400 million tonnes by the end of July 2025, which would be up by 200,000 tonnes from the February estimate and compares with the projected 2023/24 wheat carryout of 3.550 million tonnes.
AAFC March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand (in million metric tonnes):
Grains and oilseeds |
|||||||
| Production | Exports | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| Mar | Feb | Mar | Feb | ||||
| All wheat | 34.593 | 33.926 | 31.954 | 24.600 | 24.350 | 23.450 | |
| Durum | 5.655 | 5.435 | 4.045 | 4.500 | 4.350 | 3.200 | |
| Barley | 9.496 | 9.280 | 8.896 | 2.750 | 2.750 | 2.750 | |
| Corn | 14.929 | 14.310 | 15.076 | 1.650 | 1.650 | 1.850 | |
| Oats | 3.510 | 3.705 | 2.636 | 2.450 | 2.550 | 2.450 | |
| Canola | 18.100 | 18.365 | 18.328 | 7.700 | 7.700 | 7.000 | |
| Flaxseed | 0.260 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.250 | |
| Soybeans | 6.900 | 6.950 | 6.981 | 4.950 | 4.950 | 4.900 | |
| TOTAL | 88.254 | 87.296 | 84.654 | 44.533 | 44.383 | 42.847 | |
| Domestic Usage | Ending Stocks | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| Mar | Feb | Mar | Feb | ||||
| All wheat | 9.268 | 9.051 | 8.591 | 4.400 | 4.200 | 3.550 | |
| Durum | 0.880 | 0.860 | 0.829 | 0.750 | 0.700 | 0.450 | |
| Barley | 6.476 | 6.510 | 5.935 | 1.300 | 1.050 | 1.000 | |
| Corn | 15.129 | 14.810 | 15.653 | 2.200 | 1.900 | 1.900 | |
| Oats | 1.080 | 1.025 | 1.086 | 0.400 | 0.550 | 0.400 | |
| Canola | 10.850 | 10.815 | 11.084 | 1.650 | 1.950 | 2.000 | |
| Flaxseed | 0.090 | 0.095 | 0.132 | 0.050 | 0.035 | 0.120 | |
| Soybeans | 2.446 | 2.450 | 2.482 | 0.375 | 0.421 | 0.421 | |
| TOTAL | 45.628 | 45.090 | 45.312 | 10.440 | 10.171 | 9.461 | |
Pulse and Special Crops |
|||||||
| Production | Exports | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| Mar | Feb | Mar | Feb | ||||
| Dry peas | 3.000 | 3.100 | 2.609 | 2.400 | 2.300 | 2.400 | |
| Lentils | 2.130 | 2.200 | 1.671 | 1.800 | 1.800 | 1.600 | |
| Dry beans | 0.355 | 0.330 | 0.339 | 0.335 | 0.335 | 0.390 | |
| Chickpeas | 0.225 | 0.210 | 0.142 | 0.135 | 0.135 | 0.135 | |
| Mustard | 0.180 | 0.170 | 0.171 | 0.110 | 0.110 | 0.110 | |
| Canaryseed | 0.155 | 0.145 | 0.112 | 0.135 | 0.135 | 0.125 | |
| Sunflower | 0.073 | 0.078 | 0.092 | 0.035 | 0.035 | 0.025 | |
| TOTAL | 6.118 | 6.233 | 5.137 | 4.950 | 4.850 | 4.785 | |
| Domestic Usage | Ending Stocks | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| Mar | Feb | Mar | Feb | ||||
| Dry peas | 0.600 | 0.700 | 0.576 | 0.240 | 0.440 | 0.210 | |
| Lentils | 0.265 | 0.265 | 0.213 | 0.240 | 0.310 | 0.100 | |
| Dry beans | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.074 | 0.050 | 0.025 | 0.030 | |
| Chickpeas | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.065 | 0.050 | 0.005 | |
| Mustard | 0.042 | 0.042 | 0.043 | 0.100 | 0.090 | 0.065 | |
| Canaryseed | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.030 | |
| Sunflower | 0.068 | 0.068 | 0.068 | 0.185 | 0.190 | 0.180 | |
| TOTAL | 1.135 | 1.235 | 1.064 | 0.920 | 1.135 | 0.620 | |
