Tightening canola ending stocks for 2024/25: AAFC

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Published: March 20, 2024

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Glacier FarmMedia –– Canadian canola ending stocks will likely be tighter by the close of the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year, while the wheat carryout should rise, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released March 19.

Factoring updated acreage estimates from Statistics Canada, AAFC lowered their call for Canadian canola production in 2024/25 to 18.100 million tonnes, from 18.365 million in February. That compares with 18.328 million tonnes in the current 2023/24 marketing year. Projected exports were left unchanged at 7.000 million tonnes for 2023/24 and at 7.700 million in the new crop year. With only minor revisions to the domestic usage projections, canola ending stocks are now forecast to tighten to 1.650 million tonnes for 2024/25, from a projected 2.000 million in 2023/24.

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For wheat, total production was estimated at 34.593 million tonnes by the government agency. That was up by 667,000 tonnes from the February estimate and well above the 31.954 million tonnes grown in 2023/24. Canadian wheat ending stocks are forecast to rise to 4.400 million tonnes by the end of July 2025, which would be up by 200,000 tonnes from the February estimate and compares with the projected 2023/24 wheat carryout of 3.550 million tonnes.

AAFC March estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand (in million metric tonnes):

Grains and oilseeds

Production Exports
2024/25 2024/25 2023/24 2024/25 2024/25 2023/24
Mar Feb Mar Feb
All wheat 34.593 33.926 31.954 24.600 24.350 23.450
Durum 5.655 5.435 4.045 4.500 4.350 3.200
Barley 9.496 9.280 8.896 2.750 2.750 2.750
Corn 14.929 14.310 15.076 1.650 1.650 1.850
Oats 3.510 3.705 2.636 2.450 2.550 2.450
Canola 18.100 18.365 18.328 7.700 7.700 7.000
Flaxseed 0.260 0.250 0.273 0.250 0.250 0.250
Soybeans 6.900 6.950 6.981 4.950 4.950 4.900
TOTAL 88.254 87.296 84.654 44.533 44.383 42.847
Domestic Usage Ending Stocks
2024/25 2024/25 2023/24 2024/25 2024/25 2023/24
Mar Feb Mar Feb
All wheat 9.268 9.051 8.591 4.400 4.200 3.550
Durum 0.880 0.860 0.829 0.750 0.700 0.450
Barley 6.476 6.510 5.935 1.300 1.050 1.000
Corn 15.129 14.810 15.653 2.200 1.900 1.900
Oats 1.080 1.025 1.086 0.400 0.550 0.400
Canola 10.850 10.815 11.084 1.650 1.950 2.000
Flaxseed 0.090 0.095 0.132 0.050 0.035 0.120
Soybeans 2.446 2.450 2.482 0.375 0.421 0.421
TOTAL 45.628 45.090 45.312 10.440 10.171 9.461

Pulse and Special Crops

Production Exports
2024/25 2024/25 2023/24 2024/25 2024/25 2023/24
Mar Feb Mar Feb
Dry peas 3.000 3.100 2.609 2.400 2.300 2.400
Lentils 2.130 2.200 1.671 1.800 1.800 1.600
Dry beans 0.355 0.330 0.339 0.335 0.335 0.390
Chickpeas 0.225 0.210 0.142 0.135 0.135 0.135
Mustard 0.180 0.170 0.171 0.110 0.110 0.110
Canaryseed 0.155 0.145 0.112 0.135 0.135 0.125
Sunflower 0.073 0.078 0.092 0.035 0.035 0.025
TOTAL 6.118 6.233 5.137 4.950 4.850 4.785
Domestic Usage Ending Stocks
2024/25 2024/25 2023/24 2024/25 2024/25 2023/24
Mar Feb Mar Feb
Dry peas 0.600 0.700 0.576 0.240 0.440 0.210
Lentils 0.265 0.265 0.213 0.240 0.310 0.100
Dry beans 0.075 0.075 0.074 0.050 0.025 0.030
Chickpeas 0.075 0.075 0.075 0.065 0.050 0.005
Mustard 0.042 0.042 0.043 0.100 0.090 0.065
Canaryseed 0.010 0.010 0.014 0.040 0.030 0.030
Sunflower 0.068 0.068 0.068 0.185 0.190 0.180
TOTAL 1.135 1.235 1.064 0.920 1.135 0.620

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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