Chicago | Reuters – Chicago Board of Trade grain futures ticked lower on Tuesday amid a sluggish trading session, as investors weighed the latest developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
CBOT soybean futures fell after a day of choppy trade on signs of China returning to the U.S. market, and trying to finish up last-minute buying before the end of the year, said Dan Basse, president of Chicago-based AgResource Co.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 231,000 tons to “unknown destinations” – with both for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year that started September 1.
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“The market talk is that China is aiming to finish up its book of buying and get 9.5 to 10 million metric tons done by the end of this year,” Basse said. “The market sees the news as China is complying with its commitment in the trade talks. The question now is whether there really is a commitment to buy more next year,” after the initial amount is done.
U.S. farmers and grain traders have been closely tracking the pace of Chinese purchases and the shipments of soybeans in the wake of the trade talks and, according to the White House, a vow by Beijing to buy 12 million metric tons by the end of the year.
Trading remained light after the Christmas holiday and as the year-end approached, with many traders booking profits and exiting the market. CBOT most-active soybean contract Sv1 settled down 1-1/4 cents to $10.62-1/4 a bushel. Corn Cv1 ended down 1-3/4 cents at $4.40-1/2 a bushel.
And the most-active wheat contract Wv1 finished 2-1/4 cents lower at $5.10-3/4 a bushel, on concerns about hefty global supplies.
Agricultural consultancy Sovecon on Tuesday raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat exports forecast by 0.4 million metric tons to 44.6 million tons.
And wheat futures also were pressured by hopes that the war in Ukraine will end soon, even after Russia accused Kyiv on Monday of trying to attack President Vladimir Putin’s residence, pledging retaliation in response. Ukraine dismissed the claim, calling it a lie intended to derail peace talks.
A resolution of the conflict that has lasted for nearly four years would likely weigh on wheat prices, as the removal of war-related shipping risks would reduce export costs and increase access to more Ukrainian ports for wheat shipments, analysts said. Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat and corn.
-Additional reporting by Renee Hickman in Chicago, Daphne Zhang, Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing, and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris.
