There is a 57 per cent chance of La Niña emerging from now to December, and it is expected to persist through January to March 2025, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday.
“This La Nina may impact crops in a negative way, impacting food security in some of the poorer countries in the world, such as Somalia, Ethiopia and the Sudan,” AccuWeather’s senior commodity forecaster, Dale Mohler, said.
However, “since this La Nina has been slow in starting and is expected to be weak and should diminish by late February or March, its impact on crops may be less than what you would typically see during a La Niña,” Mohler added.
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Fifty-six per cent chance of more stable, ENSO neutral weather conditions in late summer and fall U.S. forecasters say
More stable weather due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025, with a 56 per cent chance in August-October, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said.
La Niña, a climatic phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is associated with both floods and droughts affecting global agriculture, and higher Caribbean hurricane activity.
Hurricane Milton last month caused an estimated $1.5 billion (C$2.1 billion) to $2.5 billion (C$3.5 billion) in damage to Florida’s crops and agricultural infrastructure, according to a preliminary assessment released by the state’s Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services last month.
Earlier this week, Japan’s weather bureau said there appeared to be signs of La Nina phenomena developing as winter approaches, but there is a 60 per cent chance weather conditions would return to normal.
— Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru
