Glacier FarmMedia — Australia will grow more wheat in 2025/26 than earlier expectations, but production will likely be down on the year in Turkey and Kazakhstan, according to several attaché reports released by the United States Department of Agriculture on Nov. 20, as it continues to catch up following the federal government shutdown.
Australia
The USDA attaché in Canberra pegged Australia’s 2025/26 wheat crop at 36 million tonnes, up from their estimate of 34.11 million the previous year. The Canberra desk based the increase on above normal rainfall in July and August. If the estimate holds, that will make for Australia’s third largest wheat harvest on record.
Read Also
‘Like gold’: Europe’s barley prices climb as buyers chase supply
Feed barley prices in Europe are matching or surpassing milling wheat, an unusual trend driven by strong export demand and tight supply.
That increase in production is to push up ending stocks to 4.88 million tonnes from 4.65 million in 2024/25.
Turkey
It’s a different course for the Turkish wheat crop, with the attaché in Ankara forecasting 16.30 million tonnes, compared to 19 million in 2024/25. The attaché said the decline is due to unseasonably dry conditions in the country.
Turkish wheat ending stocks are to fall to 2.27 million tonnes from 3.42 million the previous year.
Kazakhstan
Wheat production in Kazakhstan was projected to pull back as well, the attaché in Astana forecast. However, the main impetus for the decline is that farmers have shifted away from cereals to more profitable oilseeds.
The 2025/26 wheat harvest was projected to be 15.50 million tonnes, down one million from the year before. Ending stocks are to slide to 1.20 million tonnes from 1.95 million.
South Africa
In South Africa, its white and yellow corn crops were forecast to glean a total of 16 million tonnes, down 946,000 tonnes from 2024/25, the USDA attaché in Pretoria said.
Strong prices led to more corn grown in 2024/25, but they have since pulled back, although favourable moisture conditions have been beneficial to the 2025/26 crop.
South African corn ending stocks are to shrink by 400,000 tonnes at 1.80 million.
