Southern Prairies brace for dry spring after below-normal winter

Northern snowpack offers hope, but dry south faces anxious wait for spring rain

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Blowing snow near Marquette, Manitoba, on January 22, 2026. Photo: Greg Berg

A series of clipper-style weather systems swept through the Prairies this winter — and for anyone watching the skies, the pattern felt familiar. After a dry November start, this clipper-driven regime dominated the region for three consecutive months.


North benefits, south struggles

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While individual clippers don’t deliver heavy precipitation, their high frequency this season added up. Northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan received 10 to 50 millimetres above the long-term average — a meaningful boost for the Parkland region, which had come through the 2025 growing season already below normal.

One notable exception in the north: the Peace River region. Precipitation there was well below normal all winter, with deficits of 40 to more than 60 millimetres.

For southern growing regions, the picture is more troubling. These areas received 10 to 50 millimetres below average precipitation this winter — compounding shortfalls that already existed from a dry summer in 2025.


The largest concern heading into spring is dryness in the southern Prairies and Peace River — both need good spring rain to support crop growth in 2026.


Regional snapshot


Zone


Northern Alberta, Saskatchewan

Parkland region

Central Prairies

Peace River region

Southern Prairies

Winter precipitation


10-50 mm above average

Above normal

Near normal

40-60+ mm below average

10-50 mm below average

Outlook


favourable

favourable

watch

concern

concern


Spring forecast: warm in the south, normal in the north

Spring temperature forecasts point in different directions depending on where you farm. The southern Prairies are expected to see above-normal warmth, which should support early planting across the region.

Central and northern growing areas are forecast to see temperatures closer to normal. Combined with above-normal snowpack in the north, those conditions could delay planting for northern producers. Central areas are expected to see normal planting progress through May.

Overall Prairie precipitation for spring is forecast near normal — but that average will do little to compensate for regions already running a significant moisture deficit.


Bottom line for the 2026 season

Despite the pockets of concern, the Prairies are entering the 2026 planting season in relatively good shape overall. The north is well-stocked with moisture; central regions are near normal. The critical variables will be how spring rains fall — and whether southern growers and the Peace River region receive enough timely precipitation to offset two consecutive years of shortfalls.

A dry winter across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan raises crop concerns for 2026, while northern regions benefit from above-average snowfall.





About the author

Bruce Burnett

Bruce Burnett

Director, Weather and Markets

Bruce Burnett has been involved in monitoring markets and weather for over 30 years. His specialty is the analysis of weather conditions and their impact on global agricultural markets. He is currently director of weather and markets for Glacier FarmMedia in Winnipeg.

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