Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said last Tuesday it had cut its forecast of Argentina’s 2009 soybean harvest by three million tonnes because dry weather has cut yields.
It now forecasts Argentina’s crop in early 2009 at around 37
million tonnes, reduced from its April 14 estimate of 40 million tonnes and down from the country’s 2008 crop of 46.7 million.
If current low yield estimates are confirmed and no improvement is achieved for soybeans maturing later in the season there is a “high risk” the country’s crop could fall to as low as 34 million to 36 million tonnes, it said.
“The Argentine crop failure to 36 million to 38 million tonnes – or less – will have bullish impacts on the global market,” it said. “A shift in world demand to U. S. origin will reduce U. S. stocks more than expected until end-August 2009.”
The lower Argentine crop could sharply reduce Argentine March 2009/February 2010 soybean exports to around six million tonnes from 11.8 million the same year-ago period, it forecast.
“One effect is seen in a shift in world soybean import demand to Brazil and the U. S.,” it said. “Another response is to be seen in a further reduction of soybean crushings in many importing countries and a shift to imports of other oilseeds – mainly rapeseed – or to oils and oilmeals.”