Two recent announcements by the federal government and private industry show different research approaches to a couple of crops grown in Alberta. Both have announced the investment of millions of dollars into barley research by the federal government on the one hand, and millions into corn research by Monsanto on the other.
From the outside it looks like the barley industry is trying to catch up with the increasing advancement of corn production in Western Canada, and the seed corn industry is striving to expand its range even further. For commercial cereal growers it all boils down to which crop will produce the most profit. From a number of aspects it’s barley production that seems to be under the gun.
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Both crops have some unique qualities and uses that are not interchangeable — malt for instance. However, the one area that they do compete directly in is in livestock feeding, both for grain and silage. That area has become the main weak point for barley, as corn plant genetics continue to relentlessly make significant advancements in grain yield and overall per-acre plant silage tonnage. For cattle feeders in particular, those advancements present stark economic realities. Cheap feed and lots of it are the basis to their business. They know that grain and silage corn is what allows their American competitors to generally grow cheaper beef. The allure is real and does not bode well for barley production.
It gets even worse for barley as growers are tending to vote with their wallets. Markets are showing a decline in barley production mainly because producers can make a lot more money with canola, wheat and specialty crops. On top of that, feed barley market stability tends to be tenuous, since large feedlot operators will switch to importing trainloads of corn in a heartbeat and a nickel if the price is right. Present corn futures prices are dropping into the $4 range with projections of the largest corn crop ever this fall in the U.S. If that happens barley prices will take a big hit, with maltsters and exports being the only market reprieve.
Besides, most feedlot operators like feeding corn — they like its consistency, quality and handling. I haven’t even mentioned corn DDGS. I expect that feed byproduct will be given away if U.S. corn prices collapse.
To try and slow the decline in barley production and profitability, the industry and government figure that more research into barley is the answer. Lower input costs, higher yields and better, more specific-use varieties are to be developed. Well, more power to that approach, and the recent announcement of $8 million towards researching that goal is to be commended. But that may well be a futile exercise in the long run especially for barley used for feeding. Monsanto announced that it is going to invest $100 million into improving corn plant genetics to make it even more feasible and attractive to replace barley as a livestock feed in more areas of Western Canada.
For a private company to make that kind of investment decision shows not just significant risk taking, but probably a very clear understanding as to their research abilities to create varieties that will flourish in the more corn-challenged areas of Western Canada. I expect Monsanto already has GM corn varieties in the pipeline that will need significantly fewer heat units to grow, and lower soil temperatures to germinate.
To be fair, any new varieties that will flourish in Western Canada that are developed by Monsanto and others will also expand corn production in the northern U.S., Ukraine and other corn frontier areas. Therefore such investment is global and not just specific to this area.
The point is that there is a message here — private industry is not investing in better and more barley, mainly because there is no money to be made — not for seed companies and not even for many growers. The big elephant in the room is of course genetic engineering of cereal crops and it’s clear that barley research will not be going in that direction. That puts any potential genetic or economic progress for barley at an instant disadvantage and it will only get worse. Barley is already miles behind corn for use in the North American livestock-feeding industry. Barley has to make a giant leap forward to overcome that huge gap and in my view it’s not going to catch up without a lot of help from genetic modification. Meanwhile the big plant genetics companies are roaring ahead with evermore GM corn research that will in all likelihood displace even more barley growing.
I would suggest that 10 years from now we will see GM corn grown in Alberta for livestock feeding beginning to dominate that sector with barley being relegated to being grown for malting purposes, specialty niche markets or a crop of last resort. I sincerely hope that more barley research will stem the tide a bit, but it’s not looking that hopeful unless barley research embraces the reality of GM. I expect that many in the barley industry and many plant researchers would not protest that perspective too much.
