Forty years ago canola production was confined mostly to central and northern Alberta. It wasn’t until private plant breeders got involved with developing new varieties that the production range of canola began to significantly expand in this province.
Today we see canola growing well into southern Alberta. Much of that expansion is due to the development of hybrid and genetically modified varieties by global seed companies such as Monsanto. That involvement has seen the crop take off in production thanks to agronomic improvements, but as welcome as that has been to grower profitability, there will be long-term implications that will not help Canadian growers.
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A recent trip through the B.C. north Okanagan, Washington and Idaho provided an eye-opener as to how far canola production has spread. All those areas had canola in bloom. Production will be limited in the Okanagan area because of the restricted land base, but it will increasingly displace less profitable grain production. It’s in Washington and Idaho that the future of more canola production becomes ominous. There are millions of acres of wheat being grown on the rolling hills in both of those states. Interspersed here and there were modest acres of canola. All it’s going to take is more varieties suitable to those areas and canola production could skyrocket.
Considering the more favourable climate and their massive economies of scale, growers in those areas could be growing canola cheaper than in Western Canada. Heck, that’s not even mentioning increased canola growing in Montana, the Dakotas and even Minnesota. Once you start adding up the numbers it’s beginning to look foreboding for future canola gluts.
It gets worse when one begins to consider the future of winter canola production. At present that crop works a lot better in the U.S. and Ontario than in Western Canada. I expect plant breeders and seed companies are expending a lot of money and time in improving the genetics and agronomy of that type of canola. Considering that much of the U.S. wheat crop is of the winter variety, switching to growing winter canola is not that far fetched an idea.
One ponders how far along the big global seed companies are in developing GM winter canola and even more improved GM spring varieties that could be grown in similar areas around the world and one begins to fear for the future of canola production in Western Canada. Expansion in Australia continues, never mind future growing possibilities in South America. Clearly canola oil consumption is going to have to increase dramatically to keep up with all the potential production expansion.
