A sharp drop in the sunflower seed crop in 2025 combined with the introduction of export duties on oilseeds will lead to a surge in domestic processing of rapeseed and soybeans, the volume of which may exceed exports, said an analyst.
Ukraine increases rapeseed, soybeans processing as sunflower crop falls, analyst says
Record large Canadian wheat and canola crops: Statistics Canada
Canadian wheat and canola production in 2025/26 (Aug/Jul) surpassed early expectations to hit new record highs, according to updated survey-based estimates from Statistics Canada released Dec. 4.
ICE Weekly: Trade expects larger StatCan canola estimate
Canola’s sharp drop on Dec. 3 could be the beginning as the trade anticipates a larger canola production estimate from Statistics Canada on Dec. 4.
Calling for bigger crops ahead of StatCan report
Statistics Canada will release its first survey-based production estimates for the 2025/26 crop year on Dec. 4, with general expectations for upward revisions to most major crops from the model-based estimates in September. However, as StatCan has shown a tendency to underestimate production in its December reports, many analysts expect actual production may be revised upward in subsequent reports.
Australia raises wheat harvest estimate by nearly two million tonnes
Australia’s ABARES raised its forecast for national wheat production this season by around 1.8 million tonnes to 35.6 million tonnes, cementing expectations for a bumper harvest that will add to abundant global supply and pressure prices.
ICE canola weekly outlook: Slowly grinding higher
ICE canola futures saw some choppy activity during the week ended Nov. 26, falling below nearby support at one point before clawing back from those losses to continue their steady uptrend of the past two months.
Funds held large net short in canola before U.S. shutdown
Speculative fund traders were adding to a recently-established net short position in canola at the end of September, said the first Commitments of Traders report from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) since the end of the U.S. federal government shutdown.
ICE Canada Weekly: Canola likely to remain rangebound
Canadian canola futures are poised to slip back in the short term, although the oilseed could climb slowly higher in the long term, said Jamie Wilton, trader with R.J. O’Brien in Winnipeg, Man.
ICE Weekly: Trade progress, new data threaten to break canola’s price range
Canola futures could be affected by trade progress between Canada and China as well as the USDA’s November supply and demand estimates.
Notable changes in exports to China, India
China and India figured prominently in the September export data issued by the Canadian Grain Commission on Nov. 7. For the most part, the CGC’s numbers highlighted issues with grain, oilseed and pulse exports from licensed facilities to those countries.
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