AAFC forecasts more Canadian wheat acres, less canola in 2025

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Published: January 20, 2025

, , , , , , , , ,

Photo: Allan Dawson/File

Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Canadian farmers will plant more wheat and coarse grains in 2025 at the expense of oilseeds, according to the first supply/demand projections for the 2025/26 marketing year from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released Jan. 20.

The government agency estimated all-wheat seedings, including durum, at 27.25 million acres, which would be up two per cent from 2024. With trendline yields, total wheat production is forecast to increase to 35.025 million tonnes from 34.958 million in 2024/25.

Barley plantings are forecast to increase by five per cent, at 6.67 million acres, with oats up 6.5 per cent at 3.09 million acres and corn seedings up three per cent at 3.76 million.

Read Also

Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand speaks during an interview at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia July 10, 2025. Photo: Reuters/Hasnoor Hussain

Canada’s foreign affairs minister spoke with Chinese counterpart, federal government says

Canada’s minister of foreign affairs spoke with her Chinese counterpart while in Malaysia last week, the federal government said.

Meanwhile, canola area is forecast at 21.00 million acres which would be down by roughly a million acres on the year. Soybean seedings are forecast to fall by seven per cent at 5.31 million acres.

Total canola production is forecast to be down by two per cent on the year at 17.500 million tonnes in 2025/26. Canola ending stocks are forecast to tighten to 950,000 tonnes, from an expected 1.250 million tonnes in the current marketing year and 2.748 million tonnes at the close of 2023/24.

Pulse and special crops area is expected to decrease by two per cent as lower areas for chickpeas, dry beans, mustard and canary seed are partly offset by expectations for an increase in areas for dry peas, lentils, and sunflower seed.

Statistics Canada will release its first planting projections for the 2025/26 crop on March 12.

January estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Grains and oilseeds
Production Exports
2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24
Jan Jan
All wheat 35.025 34.958 32.946 25.900 26.150 25.334
Durum 5.152 5.870 4.087 4.400 4.900 3.558
Barley 8.600 8.144 8.905 2.900 2.980 3.064
Corn 15.100 15.345 15.421 2.000 2.200 1.969
Oats 3.510 3.358 2.643 2.250 2.250 2.377
Canola 17.500 17.845 19.192 5.500 7.500 6.683
Flaxseed 0.260 0.258 0.273 0.200 0.250 0.211
Soybeans 6.900 7.568 6.981 4.850 5.500 4.899
TOTAL 87.680 88.048 86.871 43.885 47.000 44.735
Domestic Usage Ending Stocks
2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24
Jan Jan
All wheat 9.050 9.099 8.715 4.650 4.450 4.615
Durum 0.777 0.752 0.701 0.650 0.650 0.407
Barley 5.750 5.705 5.515 0.750 0.700 1.152
Corn 15.200 15.341 15.872 2.000 2.000 1.996
Oats 1.190 1.190 1.114 0.470 0.380 0.442
Canola 12.400 11.942 11.894 0.950 1.250 2.748
Flaxseed 0.090 0.092 0.127 0.070 0.090 0.164
Soybeans 2.450 2.481 2.227 0.550 0.600 0.563
TOTAL 46.642 46.247 45.793 9.640 9.580 11.772
Pulse and Special Crops
Production Exports
2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24
Jan Jan
Dry peas 3.050 2.997 2.609 2.400 2.400 2.401
Lentils 2.385 2.431 1.801 2.200 2.100 1.674
Dry beans 0.385 0.424 0.339 0.390 0.400 0.408
Chickpeas 0.245 0.287 0.159 0.175 0.165 0.183
Mustard 0.130 0.192 0.171 0.100 0.095 0.096
Canaryseed 0.140 0.185 0.112 0.125 0.125 0.112
Sunflower 0.075 0.051 0.092 0.035 0.035 0.030
TOTAL 6.410 6.568 5.284 5.425 5.320 4.903
Domestic Usage Ending Stocks
2025/26 2024/25 2023/24 2025/26 2024/25 2023/24
Jan Jan
Dry peas 0.660 0.632 0.586 0.375 0.325 0.299
Lentils 0.245 0.246 0.265 0.365 0.350 0.165
Dry beans 0.060 0.059 0.061 0.060 0.055 0.020
Chickpeas 0.085 0.086 0.087 0.140 0.100 0.030
Mustard 0.044 0.045 0.042 0.145 0.150 0.088
Canaryseed 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.090 0.090 0.044
Sunflower 0.065 0.066 0.066 0.160 0.150 0.175
TOTAL 1.174 1.148 1.120 1.335 1.230 0.821

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

explore

Stories from our other publications