Canola crop expectations vary ahead of StatsCan report

MarketsFarm — Statistics Canada is due to publish its first production estimates for Canada’s 2020 growing season on Monday (Aug. 31).

Late-season hot temperatures and a lack of rain may cause Canada’s canola production to be lower than originally expected, according to some market participants.

Earlier in the growing season, Winnipeg-based FarmLink Agriculture Solutions published a survey that pegged yield estimates around 20.2 million tonnes. However, some market participants believe late-season dry conditions will bring canola yields down.

“There’s an expectation of a large top and big yield potential, but hotter temperatures and reduced precipitation throughout most of August has potentially impacted production potential,” said Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm, noting the production estimates will be based on satellite pictures.

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“That’s going to make things interesting,” he said.

Canola production expectations (see table below) range from the higher end of 19 million up to around 20.5 million tonnes.

“Domestic usage has been very strong, so we need that 20.5 million to keep supply stable,” said Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg.

“If the crop falls below 20 million tonnes we’re looking at a tight canola outlook for the coming season.”

Jubinville believed estimates on the higher end may be based on earlier days in the growing season.

“I think some of that potential has been curtailed by the heat and dry weather,” he said.

“That sacrificed some big yield potential in south-central Saskatchewan and the southern Prairies in general.”

The Peace region of Alberta is also a question mark ahead of the production report, as that area has seen cooler temperatures and more rain.

“It’s a big question mark how that’s going to affect the yield potential,” he said.

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

Table: Pre-report estimates of of Aug. 26, 2020, in millions of tonnes.

Crop.              .
Projections.        .
2019-20
Barley10.96 – 11.0010.38
Canola19.88 – 20.5018.65
Corn13.34 – 13.4313.40
Lentils2.51 – 3.092.16
Oats4.59 – 5.404.24
Peas4.78 – 4.854.24
Soybeans5.76 – 5.786.05
All wheat*34.01 – 38.4032.35
Durum6.14 – 6.144.98

*- “All wheat” includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat remaining after winterkill.

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