CBOT weekly outlook: Corn is the leader

MarketsFarm — Over the last week at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn has been leading soybeans, while wheat has been lacking good exports, according to Ryan Ettner, broker with Allendale Inc. in Fort McHenry, Ill.

Ettner said he also expects the situation is very likely to continue, barring any kind of a major shake-up.

When it comes to CBOT soybeans, Ettner noted traders have “a pretty good-sized long position to liquidate.”

Those traders have been choosing good-news days in order to reduce their longs, he said, but that can leave common traders in a bind.

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“You get too much good news and you get slapped in the face with fund selling.”

The broker said he fully expects this trend to remain in place in coming days, with a little bit of an upward bias.

“Nothing too extreme, as most of the positive news is from corn exports, rather than soybean exports.”

Going into February there could be some price increases on the CBOT. It’s expected the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will trim corn and soybean ending stocks a little more in its next supply and demand report, he said.

With Malaysian palm oil incurring several declines recently, soyoil hasn’t been following that edible oil too closely, Ettner said.

A bounce in palm oil on Wednesday didn’t generate too much interest at CBOT — but it could if Malaysian markets begin to see palm oil set new contract highs.

As for wheat, the broker said a lack of strong exports over the last three weeks has been keeping prices down, and he expects that to carry through for a fourth week.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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