Larger Canadian canola and wheat ending stocks expected

Glacier FarmMedia — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised its 2025/26 carryout forecasts for canola and wheat in its latest supply/demand update released Dec. 17. Ending stocks for most other crops were also higher as AAFC factored in updated production estimates from Statistics Canada reported earlier in the month, with only soybeans and corn revised down from November.

· Estimated wheat ending stocks grew to 7.500 million tonnes, from 5.100 million in November and 4.112 million in 2024/25. Wheat exports for 2025/26 were raised to 28.350 million, from 27.700 million in November but still below the 29.220 million that moved in 2024/25.

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· Projected canola ending stocks for 2025/26 were up by 450,000 tonnes from November, at 2.950 million tonnes. That compares with 1.597 million in 2024/25. Canola exports at 8.000 million tonnes compare with 7.000 million in November. However, that would still be down by 1.3 million tonnes on the year. Domestic canola usage was forecast to hit a record 12.000 million tonnes.
· The barley carryout was raised to 1.5 million tonnes, from 1.000 million in November and 1.249 million tonnes the previous year.
· Ending stocks for peas and lentils were both forecast to be roughly three-times the carryout from 2024/25 at 1.568 million tonnes and 1.535 million tonnes respectively.
· Downward revisions to soybean and corn production by Statistics Canada led to reductions in the ending stocks forecasts from AAFC. Soybean ending stocks were down by 100,000 tonnes from November at 400,000 tonnes, while the corn carryout was cut by 300,000 tonnes at 1.600 million tonnes.

December estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Grains and oilseeds
	Production			Exports
	2025/26	2025/26	2024/25	2025/26	2025/26	2024/25
	Dec	Nov		Dec	Nov
All wheat	39.955	36.624	35.939	28.350	27.700	29.220
Durum	7.135	6.535	6.380	5.350	5.200	5.821
Barley	9.725	8.228	8.144	3.240	2.840	2.843
Corn	14.867	15.500	15.345	2.200	2.400	2.776
Oats	3.920	3.370	3.358	2.650	2.420	2.566
Canola	21.804	20.028	19.239	8.000	7.000	9.331
Flaxseed	0.454	0.365	0.258	0.235	0.225	0.225
Soybeans	6.793	7.134	7.568	5.250	5.350	5.421
TOTAL	98.385	91.930	90.424	50.127	48.117	52.537

	Domestic Usage			Ending Stocks
	2025/26	2025/26	2024/25	2025/26	2025/26	2024/25
	Dec	Nov		Dec	Nov
All wheat	8.322	8.041	7.969	7.500	5.100	4.112
Durum	0.786	0.736	0.737	1.500	1.200	0.496
Barley	6.284	5.687	5.372	1.500	1.000	1.249
Corn	14.251	14.684	14.759	1.600	1.900	1.584
Oats	1.046	0.977	0.972	0.750	0.500	0.507
Canola	12.551	12.226	11.667	2.950	2.500	1.597
Flaxseed	0.089	0.090	0.071	0.275	0.195	0.134
Soybeans	2.098	2.239	2.461	0.400	0.500	0.505
TOTAL	45.200	44.395	43.639	15.225	11.885	9.830

Pulse and Special Crops
	Production			Exports
	2025/26	2025/26	2024/25	2025/26	2025/26	2024/25
	Dec	Nov		Dec	Nov
Dry peas	3.934	3.563	2.997	2.200	2.200	2.175
Lentils	3.363	2.972	2.431	2.100	2.100	1.821
Dry beans	0.438	0.352	0.424	0.380	0.380	0.402
Chickpeas	0.482	0.331	0.287	0.200	0.200	0.209
Mustard	0.140	0.141	0.192	0.095	0.095	0.091
Canaryseed	0.235	0.185	0.185	0.135	0.135	0.133
Sunflower	0.690	0.061	0.051	0.035	0.035	0.036
TOTAL	8.661	7.606	6.568	5.145	5.145	4.868

	Domestic Usage			Ending Stocks
	2025/26	2025/26	2024/25	2025/26	2025/26	2024/25
	Dec	Nov		Dec	Nov
Dry peas	0.678	0.672	0.671	1.568	1.200	0.489
Lentils	0.352	0.351	0.350	1.535	1.145	0.549
Dry beans	0.073	0.062	0.073	0.095	0.020	0.040
Chickpeas	0.089	0.088	0.088	0.295	0.145	0.062
Mustard	0.052	0.053	0.054	0.145	0.145	0.143
Canaryseed	0.014	0.014	0.012	0.170	0.120	0.084
Sunflower	0.065	0.067	0.065	0.145	0.135	0.151
TOTAL	1.323	1.308	1.314	3.950	2.910	1.518