Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Ending stocks of canola and wheat contracted significantly on the year, Statistics Canada said in its grains stocks report released on Sept. 9.
StatCan calculated total canola ending stocks for 2024/25 dropped 50.5 per cent at 1.60 million tonnes. That saw on-farm stocks tumble from 1.26 million tonnes in July 2024, to 378,000 tonnes this July. Meanwhile, commercial canola stocks fell to 1.22 million tonnes from 1.96 million.
The federal agency attributed the declines in canola to a 3.4 per cent increase in the domestic crush at 11.40 million tonnes and exports jumping 39.7 per cent at 9.30 million.
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Wheat
The decreases for wheat were somewhat subdued, with total wheat stocks falling 22.1 per cent at 4.11 million tonnes. StatCan pointed to the 15.4 per cent improvement in wheat exports, which hit a record of 29.20 million tonnes. As of July 31, commercial wheat stocks were 2.40 million tonnes, down 10.1 per cent and on-farm stocks fell 34.3 per cent at 1.70 million.
StatCan’s data for wheat without durum saw stocks pull back from 4.61 million tonnes to now 3.62 million. The numbers for durum witnessed a decline from 669,000 tonnes in 2023/24 to 496,000 in 2024/25.
Among the other crops, barley ending stocks bumped up 2.3 per cent, from 1.15 million the previous year to now 1.25 million. Rye rose as well, going from 91,000 tonnes to 143,000. Oats incurred a slight drop from 670,000 tonnes down to 507,000.
Pulses
For pulses, the 2024/25 carryovers placed lentils at 549,000 tonnes, far greater than the 165,000 tonnes the previous year. Also, pea ending stocks rose to 489,000 tonnes from 299,000 in 2023/24, while that for chickpeas more than doubled to 62,000 tonnes.
Methodology
There was little consternation regarding StatCan’s methodology as the agency didn’t use farmer-surveys for the on-farm stocks. Rather, they used a model to arrive at their estimates.
“I’m not sure what to make of the numbers,” said Mike Jubinville, a MarketsFarm analyst. “I really can’t say of they’re good numbers or bad numbers.”
Jubinville suggested StatCan should have provided a better explanation for their methodology for on-farm stocks. He acknowledged he understands how the commercial stocks were estimated.
Beginning in 2025, data for the on-farm stock component of principal field crops as of July 31, were modelled using historical survey estimates and administrative data, said StatsCan. The new methodology is a continuation of the AgZero Initiative, “which aims to reduce respondent burden while producing high-quality estimates using alternative methods, said the agency, adding that the data is subject to revision for two years following their initial publication.
Jubinville also noted the markets took a brief look at the stocks report and quickly turned their attention back to the Prairie harvest and trade issues.
